A Distributed Physically-Based Modeling Approach to Flash Flood Forecasting in Semi-arid Regions

该项目将研究基于物理的分布式模型KINEROS应用于半干旱分水岭和用于预报山洪暴发的准确性。在半干旱和干旱流域，山洪经常造成生命和财产损失，预警系统是用来减轻这些影响的一些工具。目前的FWS不包括水文气象数据收集和分析方法的最新进展，这些方法使实时预警系统成为可能。这项研究将检验150平方公里半干旱核桃沟实验流域现有的高质量降雨-径流数据，小尺度降雨变异性的影响，流域尺度径流过程特征及其对山洪预报的意义。

The project will study the accuracy of the distributed, physically-based model KINEROS as applied to a semi-arid watershed and as used for the forecasting of flash floods. In semi- arid and arid watersheds flash floods are frequent producing loss of life and property, and warning systems (FFWS) are some of the tools used to mitigate these effects. The current FFWS do not include recent advances in the methods for hydro-meteorological data collection and analysis that makes real-time warning systems possible. This study will examine existing quality rainfall-runoff data from the 150 square kilometers, semi-arid Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed, the effects of small scale variability of rainfall, the characteristics of the runoff processes at the watershed scale and its implications for flash flood forecasting.