Towards Developing a Physically Based Ice Jam Flood Early Warning System

致力于开发基于物理的冰塞洪水预警系统

• 批准号: RGPIN-2021-03804
• 负责人: Ghobrial, Tadros
• 金额: $ 2.26万
• 依托单位: Université Laval
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=753865
• 关键词: Towards; Developing; Physically; Based; Ice

River floods are the most common natural disaster. In Canada, besides open water floods, it is necessary to consider ice jam floods (IJF) since almost all river systems are ice-affected for several months of the year. IJFs are costing Canadians hundreds of millions of dollars each year. Recent IJFs on the Athabasca River at Fort McMurray, AB (spring 2020), and on the Chaudière River in the Beauce region, QC (spring 2017 and 2019) are evidences that despite all the technological advancements in recent years, still our abilities to successfully predict and prepare for these events are limited. In this context, developing an operational IJF Early Warning Systems (IJF-EWS), is an urgent priority for Canadian governments and municipalities so that sustainable flood mitigation measures can be developed. Ice jams are very complex, and therefore, the development of an IJF-EWS that can predict the timing, location and magnitude of ice jams can be successfully achieved if a physically based coupled hydrological-river ice model is developed. Progress has been made in recent years developing this type of models, but the inaccuracy and sparsity of field data during break-up are preventing the improvement and further developments of these models. To address this need, I am proposing an ambitious research program having as a long-term goal to build an operational, transferable and adaptable IJF-EWS. The short-term objectives of the proposed research program are to:   (1) Assess the applicability of ice-affected discharge measurements methods to different river sizes and types (regional aspect) and to adapt these methods for continuous measurements during the ice cover and break-up periods (temporal aspect).   (2) Develop new methods (or adapt existing ones) for continuous measurements of river ice characteristics over longer reaches (spatial aspect).   (3) Develop and validate a coupled hydrological-river ice model to accurately simulate break-up processes (modeling aspect). Three PhD and three MSc students will work on the above objectives. The students will receive training on the use of a wide variety of sophisticated field instrumentation, advanced data processing methods and numerical modelling. Field measurements will be conducted on two rivers over multiple winters. A coupled hydrological-river ice model will be developed in the Delft-FEWS platform using HOOPLA (for hydrology) and River1D (for river ice processes). The coupled model will be validated using multi-year field data. The developed IJF-EWS will have a great impact by providing forecasting information to guide the development of sustainable flood mitigation measures.

河流洪水是最常见的自然灾害。在加拿大，除了开放水域洪水，有必要考虑冰塞洪水（IJF），因为几乎所有的河流系统在一年中有几个月受到冰的影响。IJF每年花费加拿大人数亿美元。最近在阿萨巴斯卡河麦克默里堡，AB（2020年春季）和在Beauce地区的Chaudière河，QC（2017年春季和2019年）的IJFs证明，尽管近年来技术进步，但我们成功预测和准备这些事件的能力仍然有限。在这方面，开发一个可操作的IJF预警系统（IJF-EWS）是加拿大政府和市政当局的一个紧急优先事项，以便制定可持续的洪水缓解措施。冰塞是非常复杂的，因此，IJF-EWS的发展，可以预测的时间，位置和冰塞的大小可以成功地实现，如果一个物理为基础的耦合水文河冰模型的开发。近年来，开发这种类型的模型已经取得了进展，但是在破碎期间现场数据的不准确性和稀疏性阻碍了这些模型的改进和进一步发展。为了满足这一需求，我提出了一个雄心勃勃的研究计划，其长期目标是建立一个可操作的，可转移的和适应性强的IJF-EWS。拟议研究计划的短期目标是： （1）评估受冰影响的流量测量方法对不同大小和类型河流的适用性（区域方面），并调整这些方法，以便在冰盖和冰裂期间进行连续测量（时间方面）。 (2)开发新方法（或调整现有方法），用于连续测量较长河段（空间方面）的河冰特性。 (3)开发和验证耦合水文河冰模型，以准确模拟破碎过程（建模方面）。三名博士和三名硕士学生将致力于上述目标。学生将接受培训，使用各种复杂的现场仪器，先进的数据处理方法和数值模拟。将在两条河流上进行多个冬季的实地测量。将在Delft-FEWS平台中使用HOOPLA（用于水文）和River 1D（用于河冰过程）开发水文-河冰耦合模型。将使用多年实地数据验证耦合模型。 开发的IJF-EWS将通过提供预报信息来指导可持续防洪措施的制定，从而产生重大影响。