Basic and Applied Statistical Inference and Measurement

在过去十年中，统计数据和推断在确定用于公共政策的基本事实方面发挥了重要作用，例如，估计艾滋病或艾滋病毒感染的流行程度，确定职业或环境暴露导致的癌症风险，评估收入分配和法律环境的变化，例如，税收评估不平等。该项目的目的是研究在这些情况下产生的统计问题，并为解决这些问题制定适当的概率模型和统计方法。一个主要目标是研究一种估计罕见疾病流行的程序，这种程序在检测前通过将单个样本分批合并来保持匿名性。这些方法应使卫生专家能够获得公众的合作，因为被错误分类（假阳性）的感染者和未感染者将无法识别。将继续强调在若干科学上似是而非的模型可能作为数据的基础或少数观察结果可能是错误的情况下，导致统计上有效推论的可靠方法。最近在平等就业领域的法律决定提出了有关衡量歧视的新问题。计划调查沃森诉沃斯堡银行案中使用的统计方法，并研究沃德湾案的含义，以获得更精确的数据和分析方法。在法律和经济应用中产生的相关问题，例如群体数据的分析，也将进行调查。

Over the last decade statistical data and inference have played an important role in establishing the basic facts used for public policy, e.g.estimating the prevalence of AIDS or HIV infection, determining the risk of cancer from occupational or environmental exposures, assessing changes in the income distribution and in the legal setting, e.g. tax assessment inequality. The purpose of this project is to study statistical problems arising in these contexts and to develop appropriate probability models and statistical methodology for their solution. Research on procedures for estimating the prevalence of a rare disease which preserve anonymity by combining individual samples into batches prior to testing is a major goal. These methods should enable health specialists to obtain the cooperation of the public as infected individuals and non- infected persons who are misclassified (false positive) will not be identified. Robust methods which lead to statistically valid inferences when several scientifically plausible models may underlie the data or when a few observations may be erroneous will continue to be emphasized. Recent legal decisions in the equal employment area have raised new questions concerning the measurement of discrimination. It is planned to investigate the statistical approaches used in Watson v. Fort Worth Bank and to examine the implications of the Ward's Cove case for more refined data and methods of analysis. Related problems arising in legal and economic applications, e.g. the analysis of group data, also will be investigated.