Basic and Applied Studies of Statistical Inference

统计推断的基础与应用研究

• 批准号: 8702826
• 负责人: Joseph Gastwirth
• 金额: $ 7.24万
• 依托单位: George Washington University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1987
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1987-08-15 至 1990-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=8702826&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Basic; Applied; Studies; Statistical; Inference

In recent years, statistical data and inference have played an important role in establishing the basic facts used for public policymaking in a variety of areas, such as estimating the unemployment rate, determining the risk of cancer from occupational exposure to toxic chemicals, and the evaluation of the accuracy of screening tests for AIDS antibodies or for drug use. In the legal area, statistical methods are used to examine hiring and promotion data for evidence of discrimination, and also to appraise the fairness of tax assessments. Indeed, methods originally developed for the analysis of medical data have been used to analyze hiring and promotion information -- and the principal investigators of the current project have been active in researching problems arising in this area as well as some of those indicated in the paragraph above. In particular, motivated by the AIDS crisis, the investigators will use funds to be provided under the recommended award to pursue further research into estimators of the prevalence of a disease and the predictive value of screening tests in populations with low prevalence (less than one in one hundred). They plan to adapt confidentiality techniques originally designed for economic data to suggest procedures for obtaining a reliable estimate of AIDS prevalence while still preserving the anonymity of the individuals tested. Under the recommended award the investigators also plan to adapt methods used to evaluate medical screening tests to evaluate an apparent response bias in the Census Bureau's major unemployment survey, and to study other measurement problems requiring the development of statistical procedures which produce valid results even when all the usual assumptions are not satisfied by the data. The research is expected to make contributions to statistical theory in addition to its timeliness in proferring applications to recently recognized problems that are certain to be with us for some years to come.

近年来，统计数据和推断发挥了 在确立公众使用的基本事实方面发挥重要作用 各种领域的政策制定，如估计 失业率，决定癌症的风险， 职业性接触有毒化学品， 艾滋病抗体或药物筛选测试的准确性 使用. 在法律的领域，统计方法被用来检查 雇用和晋升数据，作为歧视的证据，以及 并对纳税评估的公平性进行评估。 事实上，最初开发的分析方法 医疗数据被用来分析招聘和晋升 信息-和目前的主要研究人员 项目一直在积极研究这方面出现的问题， 这一领域以及上段所述的一些领域。 特别是，在艾滋病危机的推动下， 调查人员将使用根据建议提供的资金 奖，以进一步研究的估计， 疾病的患病率和筛查的预测价值 在低患病率人群中进行检测（低于1/1 百）。 他们计划采用保密技术 最初是为经济数据设计的， 获得可靠的艾滋病流行率估计数， 保持被测试者的匿名性。 根据建议的赔偿额，调查人员还计划 调整用于评估医学筛查试验的方法， 评估人口普查局的主要调查中明显的反应偏差， 失业调查，并研究其他计量问题 要求制定统计程序， 即使所有通常的假设都不成立， 对数据感到满意。 这项研究预计将使 对统计理论的贡献，除了它的及时性 在为最近认识到的问题提供应用程序时， 在未来的几年里肯定会和我们在一起。