Basic and Applied Statistical Inference and Measurement

基础和应用统计推断和测量

• 批准号: 9209994
• 负责人: Joseph Gastwirth
• 金额: $ 8.72万
• 依托单位: George Washington University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1992
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1992-08-01 至 1996-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9209994&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Basic; Applied; Statistical; Inference; Measurement

During the last twenty years statistical data and inference have played an increasing role in establishing basic facts used in determining public policy, e.g., estimating the prevalence of HIV infection, evaluating the risk of cancer from occupational or environmental exposures, assessing changes in the income distribution and in the legal environmental setting, especially in cases concerning employment discrimination and school segregation. The purpose of the project is to study statistical problems arising in these contexts and to develop appropriate probability models and statistical methodology for their solution. Robust methods which lead to statistically valid inferences when several scientifically plausible models may underlie the data or when a few observations may be erroneous are emphasized. Different approaches for assessing the potential effect of an omitted factor and measurement errors on inferences drawn from otherwise valid studies will be developed. The completion of this project should establish the applicability of group testing to the identification, quality control and confidential estimation of the prevalence of a trait (such as the HIV virus) in a population or workforce. The successful completion of the second task of the project, namely, the development of methods for assessing the statistical bias resulting from omitted factors and misclassification in surveys, could have a very important impact in the legal and public policy setting as courts have claimed that even one error can justify criticism of a statistical study. The principal investigator has already made significant progress in unifying approaches used in various areas of application and in assessing the seriousness of the possible error on the conclusions drawn from a study.

在过去二十年中，统计数据和推断在确定用于确定公共政策的基本事实方面发挥了越来越大的作用，例如，估计艾滋病毒感染的流行率，评估职业或环境暴露造成的癌症风险，评估收入分配和法律环境的变化，特别是在与就业歧视和学校隔离有关的案件中。该项目的目的是研究在这些情况下出现的统计问题，并为解决这些问题制定适当的概率模型和统计方法。强调了当几个科学上可信的模型可能是数据的基础，或者当一些观察可能是错误的时，导致统计上有效的推断的稳健方法。将开发不同的方法来评估遗漏因素和测量误差对从其他有效研究得出的推论的潜在影响。该项目的完成应确立群体检测在确定、质量控制和保密估计某一特征(如艾滋病毒)在人口或劳动力中的流行程度方面的适用性。该项目的第二项任务，即制定评估因调查中遗漏的因素和分类错误造成的统计偏差的方法，如果顺利完成，可能会在法律和公共政策环境中产生非常重要的影响，因为法院声称，即使一个错误也可以证明对统计研究的批评是合理的。首席调查员在统一在不同应用领域使用的方法以及根据研究得出的结论评估可能错误的严重性方面已经取得了重大进展。