A Dynamical Systems Approach to Observing and Predicting Seismicity

这项研究是对混沌理论在理解和预测地震活动的随机方面的实际应用的调查。如果成功，这些方法很有希望成为预测任何混沌断层系统上地震的实用方法。利用以前有希望的结果，这项工作将估计任何确定性模型反映故障系统的初始条件而不是混沌性质的时间量。将对最近提出的两种基于吸引子的方法进行测试，以预测这些断层系统的地震活动。这项研究是国家减少地震灾害计划的一部分。

This research is an investigation of the practical applications of the theories of chaos towards understanding and predicting the random aspects of seismicity. If successful, these methods hold great promise for becoming a practical method of predicting earthquakes on any chaotic fault system. Utilizing earlier promising results, this work will estimate the amount of time that any deterministic model reflects the initial conditions rather than the chaotic nature of fault systems. A test will be made of two recently proposed, attractor-based methods of predicting seismicity on those fault systems. This research is a component of the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program.