Entry Into and Exit From Family Roles: Determinants of Timing and Life-Time Probability of the Occurrence

本项目研究进入和退出的决定因素， 与家庭有关的成人角色，包括婚姻和婚前 生育、结婚、分居和同居。 它去 超越了以往的方法， 事件发生的时间和事件发生的决定因素 事件的寿命概率。 以前的方法不能 区分时间和概率，所以，对于 例如，他们无法判断离婚率上升是否意味着 一般来说，人口中的成员更有可能经历 离婚，或者他们只是经历它早于 其他人口的成员。 PI开发了新的 方法和模型，例如， 与高离婚率相关的因素导致更高的可能性， 或加快那些夫妇的离婚时间， 最终会离婚。 为该项目开发的软件 将可供其他研究者使用， 大数据集。

This project studies determinants of entry into and exit from family-related adult roles, including marital and premarital child birth, marriage, separation, and cohabitation. It goes beyond previous methodology by distinguishing between deter- minants of the timing of events and determinants of the lifetime probability of the events. Previous methods cannot distinguish timing and probability, so, for example, they cannot tell whether a higher divorce rate means members in the population are generally more likely to experience divorce, or whether they just experience it earlier than members of some other population. The PI has developed new methods and models to see, for example, whether certain risk factors associated with high divorce rates cause higher probabil- ities or accelerate the timing of divorce for those couples who will eventually divorce. Software developed for this project will be available for use by other investigators using similar large data sets.