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Multi-level Risk-interdependence Models for Competing Events and their Applications to Social and Demographic Research

竞争事件的多层次风险相互依赖模型及其在社会和人口统计研究中的应用

基本信息

批准号：
0617202
负责人：
Kazuo Yamaguchi
金额：
$ 17万
依托单位：
National Opinion Research Center
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2006
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2006-08-01 至 2009-07-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0617202&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Multi level Risk interdependence Models

项目摘要

The project develops improved hazard rate models for analysis of the occurrence of two or more life events, such as (1) death by different causes, (2) marriage and cohabitation, (3) marital childbirth and voluntary job separation among employed women, or (4) initiation and relapse of different types of illicit drugs whose risks are not independent. These models distinguish two types of risk interdependence by extending existing models for the analysis of such competing events. One type is due to a direct interdependence of hazards such as risk interdependence which exists when an increase in the risk of a particular cause of death increases the risk of other causes of death, and vice versa. The other is due to unobserved individual differences such as risk interdependence which exists when a person who has a certain unmeasured morbidity is at higher risk of multiple causes of death. Existing models for analysis of competing events known as correlated frailty models consider mainly the latter and not the former type of risk interdependence, while the current project will develop models to account for both types. This project will also develop "causal models" for analysis of the influence of an event on the occurrence of another event, such as the influence of premarital cohabitation on marriage, or the influence of initiation of marijuana on initiation of other illicit drugs. The risk interdependence between two life events generates non-randomness of people who experience the first event regarding the risk of the second event. By taking into account the two aspects of risk interdependence, the new models can assess the causal effect of experiencing the first event on the occurrence of the second event by eliminating bias in the selection of people into the experience of the first event.This research will thus contribute to a deeper understanding of interdependence among life events. It will also provide better causal analyses regarding the possible influence of a life event on the likelihood of occurrence of another event. In particular, the project will analyze the interdependence between marital childbirth and voluntary job separation among employed women in Japan in order to study how differences in family-friendliness of the workplace affect the relationship between these two life events.

该项目开发了改进的危险率模型，用于分析两种或两种以上生活事件的发生，例如：(1)不同原因导致的死亡；(2)结婚和同居；(3)在职妇女的婚内分娩和自愿离职；或(4)开始和重新使用不同类型的非法药物，其风险不是独立的。这些模型通过扩展现有模型来分析这类竞争事件，从而区分了两种类型的风险相互依赖。一种是由于危险之间的直接相互依赖，例如风险相互依赖，当一种特定死亡原因的风险增加时，其他死亡原因的风险也会增加，反之亦然。另一种是由于未观察到的个体差异，如风险相互依赖，当一个人患有某种未测量的发病率时，他面临多种死亡原因的更高风险。现有的分析竞争事件的模型被称为相关脆弱性模型，主要考虑后者而不是前者的风险相互依赖类型，而当前的项目将开发模型来解释这两种类型。该项目还将开发“因果模型”，用于分析一件事件对另一件事件发生的影响，例如婚前同居对婚姻的影响，或开始吸食大麻对开始吸食其他非法药物的影响。两个生活事件之间的风险相互依赖产生了经历第一个事件的人对第二个事件的风险的非随机性。通过考虑到风险相互依赖的两个方面，新模型可以通过消除在选择参与第一个事件的人时的偏见，来评估经历第一个事件对第二个事件发生的因果关系。因此，这项研究将有助于更深入地了解生活事件之间的相互依存关系。它还将提供关于生活事件对另一事件发生可能性的可能影响的更好的因果分析。特别是，该项目将分析日本就业女性婚内生育与自愿离职之间的相互依存关系，以研究工作场所家庭友好度的差异如何影响这两个生活事件之间的关系。