A Factorial Survey On How People Experience Climate Change

该项目的长期目标是发展一种关于人们如何经历和应对气候变化的理论。虽然许多研究人员已经探索了人们对环境问题的看法和价值观，但实际上没有关于人们如何体验气候的实证工作。该提案旨在探讨个人对气候和气候变化的看法，以及他们对一些具体政策选择的反应。这些反应将通过访谈调查获得，其中向来自洛杉矶地区的1500名成年人提供“微气候”情景和政策包。问卷将被设计成一个阶乘实验。底层小气候温度或降水分布的四个参数将随机分配而变化。同样，政策包将通过从更大的列表中随机选择四个提案来构建。这将是一项初步研究，以确定该方法的可行性。这些数据将使用新的统计技术进行分析，以解决这些数据的多层次性质和一套截断的、分类的响应措施。

The long-range goal of this project is to develop a theory of how people experience and react to climate variation. While a number of researchers have explored people's views and values on environmental issues, there is virtually no empirical work on how people experience climate. This proposal is to explore individuals' perceptions of climate and climate change, along with their reactions to some concrete policy options. These reactions will be obtained through an interview survey in which "micro-climate" scenarios and policy packages are presented to 1500 adults from the Los Angeles area. The questionnaire will be designed for a factorial experiment. Four parameters of an underlying micro-climate temperature or precipitation distribution will be varied by random assignment. Likewise, the policy packages will be constructed by randomly selecting four proposals from a much larger list. This is to be a pilot study to determine the feasibility of this method. The data will be analyzed using new statistical techniques addressing the multi- level nature of these data and a truncated, categorical set of response measures.