The Loma Prieta Earthquake: An Event Study of Changes in Risk Perceptions and the Housing Market*

1989年10月17日的洛马普列塔地震是对旧金山湾区经济市场的外生冲击。因此，我们预计会产生一系列短期（暂时的，持续不到6个月）和长期（持续的，超过一年）的影响。这项研究的目的是评估这些影响，衡量它们的初始程度和它们持续到未来的倾向。本文考虑了两个潜在影响：(i)旧金山湾区居民的风险认知；（二）房地产市场。研究区域包括阿拉米达县、康特拉科斯塔县、圣马特奥县、圣克鲁斯县、圣克拉拉县、马林县和旧金山县（地震中受损和未受损的地区）。这项研究的产出将是四倍。首先，通过对个体风险感知的分析，我们将更好地了解风险感知的形成过程。实际事件在改变认知和引起随后的行为改变方面的影响也将被广泛研究。还将评估媒体的作用和政府官员的声明。其次，对房地产市场的任何短期和/或长期影响将被确定和量化。将再次评估媒体和公职人员的作用。第三，与事件相关的福利损失（以美元计算）以及对风险水平的任何误解将被量化。最后，个人对准确地质信息的重视程度将通过对房地产市场数据的分析来确定。从本质上讲，通过测绘或灾害公告了解相关地质信息的价值将得到体现。

The Loma Prieta Earthquake of 17 October 1989 represents an exogenous shock to the economic markets in the San Francisco Bay area. As such we would expect a set of short (transitory, lasting less than 6 months) and long (persistent, exceeding one year) term impacts to result. The objective of this research is to assess these impacts, to measure their initial magnitude and their propensity to persist into the future. Two potential impacts are considered: (i) the risk perceptions of citizens of the San Francisco Bay area; and (ii) the housing market. The study area consists of the counties of Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo, Santa Cruz, Santa Clara, Marin, and San Francisco (areas both damaged and undamaged by the earthquake). The outputs of the research will be fourfold. First, through analysis of the individual risk perceptions, we will achieve a better understanding of the risk perception formation process. The impact of an actual event in changing perceptions and causing subsequent behavioral changes will also be extensively studied. The role of the media and statements from public officials will also be assessed. Second, any short and/or long term effects on the housing market will be identified and quantified. Again, the role of the media and public officials will be assessed. Third, the welfare loss (in dollar terms) associated with the event and with any misconception of risk levels will be quantified. Finally, the value that individuals place on accurate geologic information will be determined through analysis of the housing market data. In essence, the value of knowing the relevant geologic information, either through mapping or hazard announcements will be obtained.