The Loma Prieta Earthquake: An Event Study of Changes in Risk Perceptions and the Housing Market*

1989年10月17日洛马普列塔地震 代表了对经济的外部冲击 旧金山弗朗西斯科湾区的市场。 作为 这样，我们将期望一组短 （暂时性，持续不到6个月）和 长期（持续，超过一年） 影响到结果。 的目的 研究的目的是评估这些影响， 测量它们的初始大小和 倾向于坚持到未来。 两 潜在的影响被认为：（一）风险 弗朗西斯科市民的看法 湾区;（二）住房市场。 的 研究区域包括以下县： 阿拉米达，康特拉科斯塔，圣马特奥，圣克鲁斯， 圣克拉拉、马林和旧金山弗朗西斯科（地区 地震中受损和未受损）。 研究成果将有四个方面。 首先，通过对个体风险的分析， 我们将实现更好的 对风险认知形成的理解 过程 实际事件的影响 改变人们的观念， 行为变化也将广泛 研究了 媒体和声明的作用 政府官员也将接受评估。 第二，任何短期和/或长期影响 将确定住房市场， 量化。 再次，媒体的作用和 将对公职人员进行评估。 三是 福利损失（以美元计算） 事件以及对风险的任何误解 水平将被量化。 最后，价值 人们把它放在精确的地质学上， 信息将通过 分析住房市场数据。 在 本质，了解相关信息的价值 地质信息，或者通过地图 或将获得危险通知。

The Loma Prieta Earthquake of 17 October 1989 represents an exogenous shock to the economic markets in the San Francisco Bay area. As such we would expect a set of short (transitory, lasting less than 6 months) and long (persistent, exceeding one year) term impacts to result. The objective of this research is to assess these impacts, to measure their initial magnitude and their propensity to persist into the future. Two potential impacts are considered: (i) the risk perceptions of citizens of the San Francisco Bay area; and (ii) the housing market. The study area consists of the counties of Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo, Santa Cruz, Santa Clara, Marin, and San Francisco (areas both damaged and undamaged by the earthquake). The outputs of the research will be fourfold. First, through analysis of the individual risk perceptions, we will achieve a better understanding of the risk perception formation process. The impact of an actual event in changing perceptions and causing subsequent behavioral changes will also be extensively studied. The role of the media and statements from public officials will also be assessed. Second, any short and/or long term effects on the housing market will be identified and quantified. Again, the role of the media and public officials will be assessed. Third, the welfare loss (in dollar terms) associated with the event and with any misconception of risk levels will be quantified. Finally, the value that individuals place on accurate geologic information will be determined through analysis of the housing market data. In essence, the value of knowing the relevant geologic information, either through mapping or hazard announcements will be obtained.