Snow Cover as an Indicator of Climate Change

尽管对可能的全球变暖的担忧主要集中在气温的变化上，但一些气候学家、地理学家和其他大气科学家已经注意到，降水的数量、形式和时间也可能发生重大变化。积雪的范围和持续时间是可以确定不断变化的降水和温度模式的一种衡量标准，而积雪是一个变量，许多国家都有几十年的历史数据。对这些历史数据的分析对于帮助确定积雪的自然变异性至关重要，如果要确定人类活动或其他因素造成的降雪变化，就必须区分这种模式。该项目将把美国、苏联、加拿大、中国和几个欧洲国家的大约1,000个观测站的积雪覆盖和相关变量的每日测量数据整合到一个统一的数据库中。美国和苏联的记录可以追溯到20世纪初。将对这些综合数据进行统计分析，以检验关于积雪覆盖的时空变异性的假设，并区分随机变异性和长期趋势。该项目最有价值的贡献将是将历史数据整合到一个单一的数据库中，供本研究人员和其他科学家用于对气候变异性和变化的广泛调查。该项目还将分析20世纪北半球积雪的基本变化，从而增进对过去100年来气候模式变化的总体理解。

Although much of the concern about possible global warming has focused on changes in temperatures, some climatologists, geographers, and other atmospheric scientists have noted that substantial changes in the amount, form, and timing of precipitation also may occur. The extent and duration of snow cover is one measure by which changing precipitation and temperature patterns may be identified, and snow cover is a variable for which many nations have historical data that extends over decades. Analyses of these historical data are essential to help identify natural variability in snow cover, a pattern that must be distinguished if changes in snowfall resulting from human activities or other factors are to be identified. This project will integrate into a single, coherent database the daily measurements of snow cover and related variables for roughly 1,000 observation stations in the United States, Soviet Union, Canada, China, and several European nations. Records in the USA and USSR extend back to the early years of the 20th Century. These integrated data will be statistically analyzed to test hypotheses about the spatial and temporal variability of snow cover and to differentiate random variability from long-term trends. The most valuable contribution of this project will be the integration of historical data into a single database, which will be available for use by this investigator and by other scientists for a wide range of inquiries into climatic variability and change. The project also will provide analyses of fundamental variations in snow cover across the Northern Hemisphere during the 20th Century, thereby enhancing general understandings of changing climatic patterns over the last 100 years.