Collaborative Research: Atmospheric Controls on Northern Hemisphere Cryosphere Variability

摘要ATM-9314721罗宾逊，大卫A。 罗格斯大学，新玩法 大气对北方冰冻圈的控制 变异性 该奖项支持对大气变化与覆盖北方半球的雪和海冰波动之间的关系进行全面研究。 这项工作的主要目的是提供一个半球综合的敏感性冰冻圈区域变化的大气环流，并诊断这种敏感性与降水，温度，风和模式的大规模遥相关模式之间的相关相互作用。 PI将确定那些冰冻圈区域，重点监测潜在的气候变化，以及冰冻圈未来对环流状况变化的可能反应。 作为这些努力的一部分，他们将在观测到的积雪模式与不同的GCM在当前和预测未来气候条件下模拟的积雪模式之间进行一系列相互比较。 这项研究将解决至少六个基本问题：1）北方海冰范围的变化与陆地积雪之间的关系是什么？2)冰冻圈的哪些区域对大气环流的变化表现出强或弱的反应，为什么？3)哪些地区对北方冰冻圈变化的贡献最大？4)冰冻圈对大尺度遥相关模式的响应是什么？这些模式与天气活动、温度和降水的平行异常相比如何？ 5)不同的大气环流模式如何描述当今积雪的分布和变化，从模拟的环流变化的角度来看，大气环流模式预测的冰冻圈变化对二氧化碳变暖的响应是否合理？6)冰冻圈能作为气候变化的可靠指标吗？ 对于雪和海冰分析，将把北方半球积雪范围的NOAA网格图和海军/NOAA冰浓度数据与积雪深度、降雪量、降水量和表面温度的现有台站记录结合起来。 对于大气分析，PI将使用从20世纪60年代初至今每天一到两次的NMC地面和高空场，用于计算网格点和气旋和反气旋的频率，位置和强度的区域时间序列，风暴路径和天气活动的其他指数（例如，正涡度平流）以及温度。 来自现有档案的Rawinsonde数据将用于分析水汽通量会聚的模式及其与北方高纬度地区积雪和降水变化的关系。 将获得CO2倍增（平衡）试验、瞬态试验（CO2持续增加）以及使用相同的当前边界条件的试验的不同大气环流模型的输出。 这项研究是由科罗拉多大学的Mark Serreze博士和Roger G.巴里）和罗格斯大学（大卫罗宾逊博士）。 这项工作很重要，因为它试图澄清冰冻圈在气候变化中的作用。

Abstract ATM-9314721 Robinson, David A. Rutgers University, New Brunswick Title: Atmospheric Controls on Northern Hemisphere Cryosphere Variability This award supports comprehensive study of relationships between atmospheric variability and fluctuations in the snow and sea ice covers the Northern Hemisphere. The primary thrust of the work is to provide a hemispheric synthesis of the sensitivity of the cryosphere to regional changes in the atmospheric circulation, and to diagnose this sensitivity with respect to associated interactions between precipitation, temperature, winds and the modes of large-scale teleconnection patterns. The PIs will identify those regions of the cryosphere warranting focused monitoring for potential climate change, and possible future responses of the cryosphere to changes in circulation regimes. As part of these efforts, they will perform a series of intercomparisons between observed snow cover patterns and those simulated by different GCMs under present and project future climatic conditions. The study will address at least six basic questions: 1) What are the relationships between variations in northern hemisphere sea ice extent and terrestrial snow cover? 2) What areas of the cryosphere exhibit strong or weak responses to atmospheric circulation changes and why? 3) Which areas contribute most strongly to northern hemisphere cryosphere variability? 4) What are the responses of the cryosphere to the modes of Large-scale teleconnections patterns, and how do these compare with parallel anomalies in synoptic activity, temperature and precipitation? 5) How well do different GCMs depict the present day distribution and variability of snow cover, and are changes in the cryosphere projected by GCMs in response to enhance CO2 warming reasonable from the viewpoint of modeled circulation changes? 6) Can the cryosphere be used as a robust indicator of climate change? For the snow and sea ice analyses, gridded NOAA charts of Northern Hemisphere snow extent and Navy/NOAA ice concentration data will be combined with available station records of snow depth, snow fall, precipitation and surface temperature. For atmospheric analyses, the PIs will use once to twice-daily NMC surface and upper-air fields from the early 1960s to present, used to calculate grid- point and regional time series of the frequency, position and strength of cyclones and anticyclones, storm tracks, and other indices of synoptic activity (e.g, positive vorticity advection), as well as temperature. Rawinsonde data from an existing archive will be used to analyze patterns of moisture flux convergence and their associations with snow cover and precipitation variations at high northern latitudes. Output from different GCMs will be obtained for doubled CO2 (equilibrium) runs, transient runs (in which CO2 is continually increased), as well as for runs using identical present-day boundary conditions. The research is a collaborative effort between University of Colorado (Drs. Mark Serreze and Roger G. Barry) and Rutgers University (Dr. David Robinson). The work is important because it seeks to clarify the role of the cryosphere in climate variability.