Agricultural Production and Climatic Variation

在过去的半个世纪里，全世界的农业实践发生了革命性的变化。新的杂交作物、化肥、除草剂和杀虫剂以及灌溉和排水系统大大提高了产量。在许多地区，土地改革和土地利用模式的改变也提高了产量。然而，新技术和社会经济变化在多大程度上影响了农业对极端气候的反应尚未得到详细研究。本项目将重点研究20世纪气候波动，特别是干旱对墨西哥农业生产的影响程度，从而研究这种关系。气象记录、农业普查和报告的数据以及通俗出版物中的叙述将用于重建和绘制生产的动态模式，并将这些模式与不断变化的技术和社会经济条件联系起来。统计分析将评估气候与作物产量之间的关系、新技术在多大程度上缓冲了农业系统对气候变化的影响、以及不同土地利用制度之间干旱影响的差异。这些一般性分析将辅以四个关于易受干旱影响的案例研究，这些研究将依靠当地记录和对当地居民的采访。这些案例研究将试图展示环境、技术和社会经济变化如何改变气候对当地农业系统的影响。这个项目将有助于我们对社会和经济活动形式的改变如何影响人类对不断变化的自然条件的反应的一般理解。它还将增强我们对技术变革在多大程度上使社会或多或少地抵抗环境波动的洞察力，并将提供有关墨西哥农业动态的宝贵信息，墨西哥是受“绿色革命”强烈影响的其他国家的代表。

Agricultural practices throughout the world have been revolutionized within the last half-century. New crop hybrids, chemical fertilizers, herbicides, and pesticides, and irrigation and drainage systems have substantially increased production. In many areas, land reform and changing land-use patterns also have boosted yields. The degree to which new technologies and socioeconomic changes have affected agricultural responses to climatic extremes has not been studied in detail, however. This project will examine this relationship by focusing on the degree to which climatic fluctuations, especially drought, have affected agricultural production in Mexico during the 20th Century. Meteorological records, data from agricultural censuses and reports, and accounts in popular publications will be used to reconstruct and map dynamic patterns of production and to relate those patterns to changing technological and socioeconomic conditions. Statistical analyses will assess the correlation between climate and crop yields, the degree to which new technologies have buffered the agricultural system against climatic variability, and the differences in drought impacts among different land-use regimes. These general analyses will be complemented by four case studies of vulnerability to drought that will rely on local records and interviews with local residents. These case studies will try to show how environmental, technological, and socioeconomic changes have altered the impacts of climate on local agricultural systems. This project will contribute to our general understandings of the ways that altered forms of social and economic activity affect human responses to changing natural conditions. It will also enhance our insights about the degree to which technological change makes societies more or less resistant to environmental fluctuations, and it will provide valuable information about the dynamics of agriculture in Mexico, a nation that is representative of others that have been strongly impacted by the "Green Revolution."