Agricultural Production and Climatic Variation

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Agricultural practices throughout the world have been revolutionized within the last half-century. New crop hybrids, chemical fertilizers, herbicides, and pesticides, and irrigation and drainage systems have substantially increased production. In many areas, land reform and changing land-use patterns also have boosted yields. The degree to which new technologies and socioeconomic changes have affected agricultural responses to climatic extremes has not been studied in detail, however. This project will examine this relationship by focusing on the degree to which climatic fluctuations, especially drought, have affected agricultural production in Mexico during the 20th Century. Meteorological records, data from agricultural censuses and reports, and accounts in popular publications will be used to reconstruct and map dynamic patterns of production and to relate those patterns to changing technological and socioeconomic conditions. Statistical analyses will assess the correlation between climate and crop yields, the degree to which new technologies have buffered the agricultural system against climatic variability, and the differences in drought impacts among different land-use regimes. These general analyses will be complemented by four case studies of vulnerability to drought that will rely on local records and interviews with local residents. These case studies will try to show how environmental, technological, and socioeconomic changes have altered the impacts of climate on local agricultural systems. This project will contribute to our general understandings of the ways that altered forms of social and economic activity affect human responses to changing natural conditions. It will also enhance our insights about the degree to which technological change makes societies more or less resistant to environmental fluctuations, and it will provide valuable information about the dynamics of agriculture in Mexico, a nation that is representative of others that have been strongly impacted by the "Green Revolution."