Agricultural Production and Climatic Variation

世界各地的农业实践 在过去的半个世纪里发生了革命。 新的杂交作物， 化肥、除草剂和杀虫剂，以及灌溉和 排水系统大大提高了产量。 在许多 土地改革和改变土地使用模式也促进了 收益率 新技术和社会经济变化的程度 影响农业对极端气候的反应， 但是，详细研究。 本项目将研究 通过关注气候波动的程度， 特别是干旱影响了墨西哥的农业生产 在世纪。 气象记录，数据来自 农业普查和报告，以及大众出版物中的说明 将用于重建和绘制生产的动态模式， 将这些模式与不断变化的技术和社会经济联系起来 条件 统计分析将评估以下因素之间的相关性： 气候和作物产量，新技术在多大程度上 缓冲了农业系统对气候变化的影响， 不同土地使用制度之间干旱影响的差异。 这些 一般分析将由四个案例研究补充， 易受干旱影响的脆弱性将依赖于当地记录和访谈 与当地居民。 这些案例研究将试图说明如何 环境、技术和社会经济的变化改变了 气候对当地农业系统的影响。 这个项目将有助于我们对 改变了的社会和经济活动形式对人类的影响 对自然条件变化的反应。 这也将提高我们的 关于技术变革在多大程度上使社会 或多或少地抵抗环境波动， 提供有关农业动态的宝贵信息， 墨西哥，一个代表其他国家的国家， 受到“绿色革命”的强烈冲击。"

Agricultural practices throughout the world have been revolutionized within the last half-century. New crop hybrids, chemical fertilizers, herbicides, and pesticides, and irrigation and drainage systems have substantially increased production. In many areas, land reform and changing land-use patterns also have boosted yields. The degree to which new technologies and socioeconomic changes have affected agricultural responses to climatic extremes has not been studied in detail, however. This project will examine this relationship by focusing on the degree to which climatic fluctuations, especially drought, have affected agricultural production in Mexico during the 20th Century. Meteorological records, data from agricultural censuses and reports, and accounts in popular publications will be used to reconstruct and map dynamic patterns of production and to relate those patterns to changing technological and socioeconomic conditions. Statistical analyses will assess the correlation between climate and crop yields, the degree to which new technologies have buffered the agricultural system against climatic variability, and the differences in drought impacts among different land-use regimes. These general analyses will be complemented by four case studies of vulnerability to drought that will rely on local records and interviews with local residents. These case studies will try to show how environmental, technological, and socioeconomic changes have altered the impacts of climate on local agricultural systems. This project will contribute to our general understandings of the ways that altered forms of social and economic activity affect human responses to changing natural conditions. It will also enhance our insights about the degree to which technological change makes societies more or less resistant to environmental fluctuations, and it will provide valuable information about the dynamics of agriculture in Mexico, a nation that is representative of others that have been strongly impacted by the "Green Revolution."