Decision-Making, Modeling and Forecasting Hydrometeorologic Extremes Under Climate Change

气候变化下的水文气象极端事件的决策、建模和预测

• 批准号: 9016556
• 负责人: Istvan Bogardi
• 金额: $ 9.67万
• 依托单位: University of Nebraska-Lincoln
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1991
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1991-02-15 至 1994-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9016556&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Decision; Making; Modeling; Forecasting; Hydrometeorologic

The project will develop a fuzzy set framework to deal with the effects of climatic changes on water resources management and with the uncertainties in the prediction of hydrometeorologic extremes, such as floods and droughts, under changing climatologic conditions. Probabilistic and fuzzy set analyses will be combined and historical data will be used to link local climate elements to global circulation models for the generation of circulation patterns. Anomalies in these patters usually produce drought or flood and these events will be developed as time series. Forecasting will be carried out of such time series on the basis of circulation pattern series and some of these forecasts will be used in water resources decision-making, e.g., reservoir operation. The value of this research will be to provide theoretical bases to engineering techniques for taking climatic fluctuations and global changes into account in decision-making related to extreme droughts and floods.

该项目将开发一个模糊集 的影响的框架 气候变化对水资源影响 管理和不确定性， 水文气象极端事件的预测， 比如洪水和干旱， 气候条件。 概率和 模糊集分析将被结合， 历史数据将被用于连接本地 全球环流模式的气候要素 for the generation生成of circulation循环patterns模式. 这些模式中的异常通常会产生 干旱或洪水，这些事件将 发展为时间序列。 预测将 在这样的时间序列上进行 循环模式系列的基础和一些 这些预测将用于水 资源决策，例如，水库 操作 这项研究的价值将 是为 气候工程技术 波动和全球变化 在与极端主义有关的决策中， 干旱和洪水。