Decision-Making, Modeling and Forecasting Hydrometeorologic Extremes Under Climate Change

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The project will develop a fuzzy set framework to deal with the effects of climatic changes on water resources management and with the uncertainties in the prediction of hydrometeorologic extremes, such as floods and droughts, under changing climatologic conditions. Probabilistic and fuzzy set analyses will be combined and historical data will be used to link local climate elements to global circulation models for the generation of circulation patterns. Anomalies in these patters usually produce drought or flood and these events will be developed as time series. Forecasting will be carried out of such time series on the basis of circulation pattern series and some of these forecasts will be used in water resources decision-making, e.g., reservoir operation. The value of this research will be to provide theoretical bases to engineering techniques for taking climatic fluctuations and global changes into account in decision-making related to extreme droughts and floods.