US-Hungary Research on Prediction of Local Hydrology under Global Climate Change

内布拉斯加州大学林肯分校的Istvan Bogardi博士和亚利桑那大学图森分校的Lucien Duckstein博士之间的这项美国-匈牙利研究项目的主要目标是，与匈牙利布达佩斯厄特沃斯大学气象系的Ferenc Rakoczi博士，是通过定义大气环流模式的发生和类型之间的概率联系，来开发预测受气候波动影响的当地水文变量的方法和(A)局部降水，(B)洪水事件；(C)枯水期；(D)湖平面。有了这种联系，他们将使用现有的大气环流模型情景来预测反映气候变化的水文量。他们将使用这些概念并将其与匈牙利和美国的两个流域进行比较，并研究匈牙利巴拉顿湖和犹他州大盐湖的湖面波动。这些成果应成为水资源决策的重要投入，包括减轻气候波动和全球变化对当地水文学的影响。这个土木工程项目通过使美国和东欧的顶尖专家能够将互补的人才和在共同感兴趣和能力较强的领域集中研究资源。

The primary objective of this U.S.-Hungary research project between Drs. Istvan Bogardi of the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, and Lucien Duckstein of the University of Arizona-Tucson, with Dr. Ferenc Rakoczi of the Department of Meteorology, Eotvos University, Budapest, Hungary, is to develop methods to predict local hydrological variables influenced by climate fluctuations by defining a probabilistic linkage between the occurrence and type of atmospheric circulation patterns and (a) local precipitation, (b) flood events, (c) dry periods, and (d) lake levels. With that linkage, they will use available general circulation model scenarios to predict the hydrological quantities reflecting climate change. They will use and compare these concepts to two drainage basins, in Hungary and the U.S., and study lake level fluctuations at Lake Balaton in Hungary and the Great Salt Lake in Utah. The results should constitute a major input into water resources decision-making, including the mitigation of the effects of climate fluctuation and global change on local hydrology. This project in civil engineering fulfills the program objectives of advancing scientific knowledge by enabling leading experts in the United States and Eastern Europe to combine complimentary talents and pool research resources in areas of strong mutual interest and competence.