US-Hungary Research on Prediction of Local Hydrology under Global Climate Change

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The primary objective of this U.S.-Hungary research project between Drs. Istvan Bogardi of the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, and Lucien Duckstein of the University of Arizona-Tucson, with Dr. Ferenc Rakoczi of the Department of Meteorology, Eotvos University, Budapest, Hungary, is to develop methods to predict local hydrological variables influenced by climate fluctuations by defining a probabilistic linkage between the occurrence and type of atmospheric circulation patterns and (a) local precipitation, (b) flood events, (c) dry periods, and (d) lake levels. With that linkage, they will use available general circulation model scenarios to predict the hydrological quantities reflecting climate change. They will use and compare these concepts to two drainage basins, in Hungary and the U.S., and study lake level fluctuations at Lake Balaton in Hungary and the Great Salt Lake in Utah. The results should constitute a major input into water resources decision-making, including the mitigation of the effects of climate fluctuation and global change on local hydrology. This project in civil engineering fulfills the program objectives of advancing scientific knowledge by enabling leading experts in the United States and Eastern Europe to combine complimentary talents and pool research resources in areas of strong mutual interest and competence.