Fuzzy Fuel-Based Modeling of Extremes Under Climatic Change

9613654 9614017 Duckstein Bogardi该项目旨在开发和测试基于模糊规则的模型，用于预测全球气候变化下区域干旱和洪水的特征。 本文的工作主要分为四个方面：1）建立一个基于模糊规则的模型，将逐日大气环流型CP类型的时间序列与洪水事件特征和干旱发生严重度指数联系起来; 2）利用基于GCM的气候变化情景生成未来可能的CP类型时间序列和相应的洪水和干旱概率; 3）调查方法中的不确定性以及这些不确定性的社会经济后果; 4）制定并排名强有力的缓解行动。 这项研究的好处预计是：一个易于使用的模型，将产生气候变化下可能发生的洪水和干旱的时间序列，可以更新和结合，并可以接受模糊预测;社会和经济后果清单;一个减缓行动清单，其中有这些行动的初步标准排序;以及该模型在上格兰德河和密苏里州河流域的应用。 ***

9613654 9614017 Duckstein Bogardi The project is directed to the development and testing of a fuzzy rule-based model for predicting the characteristics of regional droughts and floods under global climate change. The work is divided into four tasks: 1) the construction of the fuzzy rule-based model relating the time series of daily Atmospheric Circulation Pattern CP types with flood events characteristics and drought occurrence severity index; 2) use of GCM based climate change scenarios to generate possible future time series of CP type and consequential flood and drought probabilities; 3) investigate the uncertainties in the approach and the socio-economic consequences of these uncertainties; and 4) develop and rank robust mitigating actions. The benefits from this research are expected to be: an easy-to-use model that will yield time series of possible floods and droughts under climate change that can be updated and coupled and can accept fuzzy forecasts; and inventory of social and economic consequences; an inventory of mitigation actions with a preliminary criteria ranking of these actions; and the application of the model to the upper Rio Grande and the Missouri River basins. ***