Physical Forcing of Spatially Distributed, Meroplanktonic Populations/GLOBEC

博茨福德博士和合作者将模拟和分析 空间和时间变化的物理 海洋学条件对空间分布，亚热带 海洋种群的年龄或大小结构和密度- 依赖性招聘 他们将研究两者的影响： (1)对运输和生存的大尺度物理强迫 亚种群之间在浮游幼虫阶段，和 (2)对当地生活史速率的小尺度物理强迫 亚种群。 人口行为的特点是 持久性、稳定性、对环境的敏感性 可变性和空间同步性。 这些研究人员将使用 他们的模型和他们对项目变化的分析结果 由于全球气候的预计变化，这些人群中。 作为进行这些预测的具体例子， 将重点放在邓杰尼斯蟹（癌症魔术师）和 海胆（球海胆属）之间的摄食相互作用 和大型藻类（Nereocystis leutkeana，Macrocystis pyrifera） 加州洋流系统 对于这些系统， 基于理想水流和小规模底栖生物的幼虫迁移 根据波能计算的流量。 未来可能发生的变化 物理环境将包括水平的变化 上升流和ENSO事件的频率和强度。

Dr. Botsford and collaborators will model and analyze the dynamic effects of spatially and temporally varying physical oceanographic conditions on spatially distributed, meroplanktonic marine populations with age or size structure and density- dependent recruitment. They will examine the effects of both: (1) large scale physical forcing on transport and survival between sub-populations during the planktonic larval stage, and (2) small scale physical forcing on life history rates in local sub-populations. Population behavior will be characterized in terms of persistence, stability, sensitivity to environmental variability, and spatial synchrony. These investigators will use their models and the results of their analyses to project changes in these populations due to projected changes in global climate. As specific examples for which to make these projections, they will focus on the Dungeness crab (Cancer magister) and the feeding interaction between sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus spp.) and macroalgae (Nereocystis leutkeana, Macrocystis pyrifera) in the California Current System. For these systems they will model larval transport based on idealized flows and small scale benthic flows computed from wave energy. Potential future changes in the physical environment will include changes in the level of upwelling and the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events.