Physical Forcing of Spatially Distributed, Meroplanktonic Populations/GLOBEC

Botsford 博士和合作者将模拟和分析空间和时间上变化的物理海洋条件对空间分布的浮游海洋种群的动态影响，这些种群具有年龄或大小结构以及密度依赖性补充。 他们将研究以下两者的影响：（1）浮游幼虫阶段大规模物理强迫对亚种群之间的运输和生存，以及（2）小规模物理强迫对当地亚种群生活史率的影响。 种群行为的特征在于持久性、稳定性、对环境变化的敏感性和空间同步性。 这些研究人员将使用他们的模型和分析结果来预测由于全球气候的预计变化而导致的这些人群的变化。 作为进行这些预测的具体例子，他们将重点关注加利福尼亚洋流系统中的珍宝蟹（Cancer magister）以及海胆（Strongylocentrotus spp.）和大型藻类（Nereocystis leutkeana、Macrocystis Pyrifera）之间的摄食相互作用。 对于这些系统，他们将根据理想化流和根据波浪能计算的小规模底栖流来模拟幼虫运输。 未来物理环境的潜在变化将包括上升流水平以及 ENSO 事件频率和强度的变化。

Dr. Botsford and collaborators will model and analyze the dynamic effects of spatially and temporally varying physical oceanographic conditions on spatially distributed, meroplanktonic marine populations with age or size structure and density- dependent recruitment. They will examine the effects of both: (1) large scale physical forcing on transport and survival between sub-populations during the planktonic larval stage, and (2) small scale physical forcing on life history rates in local sub-populations. Population behavior will be characterized in terms of persistence, stability, sensitivity to environmental variability, and spatial synchrony. These investigators will use their models and the results of their analyses to project changes in these populations due to projected changes in global climate. As specific examples for which to make these projections, they will focus on the Dungeness crab (Cancer magister) and the feeding interaction between sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus spp.) and macroalgae (Nereocystis leutkeana, Macrocystis pyrifera) in the California Current System. For these systems they will model larval transport based on idealized flows and small scale benthic flows computed from wave energy. Potential future changes in the physical environment will include changes in the level of upwelling and the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events.