Physical Forcing of Spatially Distributed, Meroplanktonic Populations/GLOBEC

博特福德博士和他的合作者将模拟和分析在空间和时间上变化的物理海洋条件对具有年龄或大小结构和密度依赖的补充的空间分布的分流浮游海洋种群的动态影响。他们将研究两方面的影响：(1)浮游幼虫阶段大范围物理强迫对子种群之间的运输和生存的影响，(2)小尺度物理强迫对当地亚种群生活史比率的影响。种群行为将以持久性、稳定性、对环境变化的敏感性和空间同步性为特征。这些研究人员将使用他们的模型和他们的分析结果来预测由于预测的全球气候变化而导致的这些人口的变化。作为进行这些预测的具体例子，他们将重点放在Dungeness蟹(癌症巨蟹)和海胆(Strongyloctrotus spp.)之间的摄食相互作用上。和大型藻类(Nerecystis leutkeana，Macrocystis pyrifera)。对于这些系统，他们将根据根据波浪能量计算的理想化流动和小尺度海底流动来模拟幼虫的运输。未来物理环境的潜在变化将包括上升流水平的变化以及ENSO事件的频率和强度的变化。

Dr. Botsford and collaborators will model and analyze the dynamic effects of spatially and temporally varying physical oceanographic conditions on spatially distributed, meroplanktonic marine populations with age or size structure and density- dependent recruitment. They will examine the effects of both: (1) large scale physical forcing on transport and survival between sub-populations during the planktonic larval stage, and (2) small scale physical forcing on life history rates in local sub-populations. Population behavior will be characterized in terms of persistence, stability, sensitivity to environmental variability, and spatial synchrony. These investigators will use their models and the results of their analyses to project changes in these populations due to projected changes in global climate. As specific examples for which to make these projections, they will focus on the Dungeness crab (Cancer magister) and the feeding interaction between sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus spp.) and macroalgae (Nereocystis leutkeana, Macrocystis pyrifera) in the California Current System. For these systems they will model larval transport based on idealized flows and small scale benthic flows computed from wave energy. Potential future changes in the physical environment will include changes in the level of upwelling and the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events.