GLOBEC: Physical Influences on California Current Salmon

GLOBEC NEP计划将继续在加州海流系统(CCS)的两个部分进行年度长期观测(2D)，以及在两个野外年进行中尺度(3D)和过程研究。通过这些研究，该计划旨在实现对物理和生物过程如何驱动浮游动物和鲑鱼种群的定量理解，时间尺度从数十年到每周，空间尺度从盆地到中尺度。作为科学过程的一部分，也作为预测未来气候变化对这些人口的影响的预期工具，需要在涉及的许多学科、变异性的规模和生态组织的水平上进行建模。作为GLOBEC计划的一部分，PIS将：(1)增加单个CCS鲑鱼的游泳能力，并将其嵌入GLOBEC和COOP物理模型中，以解释早期海洋生物的分布、生长和存活；(2)描述众所周知但鲜为人知的海洋环境对鲑鱼大小结构的影响；以及(3)从十年尺度到中尺度，评估CCS鲑鱼产卵和招募数据和物理数据之间的追溯关系。此外，PI将使用数字。用实验来测试对观察到的分布的解释，看看它们是否满足生物能量和游泳速度的限制，并评估它们对食物和捕食者分布的影响。个体水平分析和现有数据表明，环境对生长的影响不仅影响生存，还影响成熟时间表，这种影响对种群和集合种群动态以及追溯的影响尚不清楚。GLOBEC NEP关于该生态系统和鲑鱼种群对气候变化的反应的结论将需要与过去的数据保持一致。指标将完善其追溯结果，将十年和年度尺度与季节、中尺度机制联系起来，使用补充和产卵数据(比渔获量更容易混淆)，并考虑淡水条件。随着GLOBEC NEP在4或5年后完成，建模和回顾研究将整合在一起，以提供前瞻性的总结。

The GLOBEC NEP Program will continue annual long term observations (2D) in two parts of the California Current System (CCS), along with mesoscale (3D) and process studies in two field years. Through those studies the program aims to achieve a quantitative understanding of how physical and biological processes drive zooplankton and salmon populations, on time scales ranging from multi-decadal to weekly, and spatial scales from the basin to mesoscale. Modeling is required to integrate over the many disciplines involved, scales of variability, and levels of ecological organization, both as a part of the scientific process, and as a prospective tool to predict the effects of future climate change on these populations. As part of the GLOBEC Program the PIs will: (1) add a swimming capability to their bioenergetic model of individual CCS salmon and embed that in GLOBEC and CoOP physical models to explain salmon distribution, growth and survival in early ocean life, (2) describe implications for CCS salmon population dynamics of well known, but poorly understood effects of the ocean environment on salmon size structure, and (3) assess retrospectively relationships between CCS salmon spawner and recruit data and physical data from the CCS from multidecadal scales to the mesoscale. In addition the PIs will use numerical. experiments to test explanations of observed distributions, to see whether they meet bioenergetic and swimming speed constraints, and to evaluate their consequences regarding distributions of food and predators. Individual level analyses and existing data indicate environmental influences on growth affect not just survival, but also maturity schedules, an effect whose consequences for population and metapopulation dynamics and for retrospective are not known. GLOBEC NEP conclusions regarding the response of this ecosystem and salmon populations to climate change will require consistency with past data. The PIs will refine their retrospective results by relating decadal and annual scales to seasonal, mesoscale mechanisms, using recruitment and spawner data (which are less confounded than catch) and accounting for freshwater conditions. As GLOBEC NEP reaches completion 4 or 5 years from now, the modeling and retrospective studies will be integrated to provide a prospective summary.