Insurability of Quake: A Model Risk Analysis for Small Business Concerns

最近的公共政策讨论提出了 对地震可保性的担忧 损害和极低水平的 地震保险购买小 业务 同时，非常理论化 有人提出了关于使用 确定性损失估计，特别是 最坏的情况下，在保险评估 特别是地震时。 这些 理论问题表明， 在不知情的情况下做出的决定 可能会鼓励不利的 选择和规避风险 多样化，例如覆盖许多 地理位置分散的小型物业。 为了研究这些问题，也为了澄清 上级风险工具现在可用于 地震的定量模型 保险公司和小企业将 使用这些模型进行开发和研究， 确定是否和根据什么类型 地震保险的规划建设 对于灾后恢复是可行的 小企业的。 这种定量 方法应进一步有助于澄清 保险的概念。

Recent public policy discussions have raised concerns over the insurability of quake damages and the extremely low level of earthquake insurance purchase by small business. At the same time, very theoretical issues have been raised about the use of deterministic loss estimates, especially worst-case ones, in insurance evaluation procedures, especially for earthquake. These theoretical issues suggest that deterministic decisions, decision made in ignorance of probabilities, may encourage adverse selection and discourage risk diversification, such as coverage of numerous small properties with geographical spread. To examine these issues, and also to clarify superior risk tools now available for earthquake, quantitative models for both insurers and small businesses will be developed and examined using these models to determine whether or not and under what types of program constructs earthquake insurance would be feasible for post-disaster recovery of small businesses. This quantitative approach should further assist in clarifying the concept of insurability.