Economic Growth

一个关键的经济问题是，贫穷国家或地区是否倾向于比富裕国家或地区增长更快：随着时间的推移，是否存在自然而然的力量，导致人均收入和产品水平的趋同？这个项目的目的是在三个背景下分析这个问题。第一，1840年至今美国各州的个人收入；第二，1950年至1985年欧洲6国70多个地区的国内生产总值；第三，1960年至1985年约100个县的国民账户和其他变量。我们将在新古典增长模型的基础上建立一个理论框架。从这些扩展的角度来看，最近的理论分为三类：用技术变革理论取代外生技术进步；用生育率理论取代外生人口增长；用渐近恒定回报假设取代通常的资本回报递减假设。然后，这些增长理论模型将用与美国、欧洲和国际背景相对应的数据进行测试。这项研究之所以重要，是因为它将更好地理解决定经济增长和发展的因素。

A key economic issue is whether poor countries or regions tend to grow faster than rich ones: are there automatic forces that lead to convergence over time in levels of per capita income and product? The purpose of this project is to analyze this question in three contexts. First, personal income across the U.S. states from 1840 to the present; second, gross domestic product for over 70 regions of 6 European countries from 1950 to 1985; and third, national-account and other variables for about 100 counties from 1960 to 1985. A theoretical framework will be developed which is based on extensions of the neoclassical growth model. From the perspective of these extensions, recent theories sort into three categories: replacing exogenous technological progress by theories of technological change; replacing exogenous population growth by theories of fertility; and replacing the usual assumption of diminishing returns of capital by the assumption of asymptotically constant returns. These growth theory models will then be tested with data corresponding to the U.S., European, and international contexts. This research is important because it will provide a better understanding of the factors determining economic growth and development.