Time Preference and Macroeconomics

时间偏好与宏观经济学

• 批准号: 9730402
• 负责人: Robert Barro
• 金额: $ 21.09万
• 依托单位: National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1998
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1998-06-01 至 2002-11-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9730402&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Time; Preference; Macroeconomics

The standard long run model of the macroeconomy-the neoclassical growth model- assumes a simple form of household preferences in which the rate of time preference is constant. However, some recent experimental evidence suggests that households are myopic in the sense that rates of time preference are very high over the near term but much lower between dates advanced some time in the future. This project will assess the theoretical implications of this form of preferences for observable macroeconomic behavior and then test the hypotheses on cross country data. The neoclassical growth model is modified to allow for a non constant rate of time preference. If the household cannot commit future choices of consumption and if utility is logarithmic, then an equilibrium is found that resembles the standard results of the neoclassical model. In this solution, the effective rate of time preference is high, but constant. Although this model has potentially important implications for institutional design and other policies- because households would benefit from an ability to commit future consumption-there is a sense in which the results are observationally equivalent to those of the conventional growth model. When the framework is extended to allow for partial commitment ability, then some testable hypotheses emerge. Steady state results are obtained for more general utility functions, and some properties of dynamic paths are worked out for the case of isoelastic utility. Further theoretical research will assess the uniqueness of the equilibria. Multiplicity of equilibria have been found in analogous contexts by other researchers but only when the household's horizon is infinite. The properties of the transitional dynamics will be worked out numerically for the case of isoelastic utility, and further testable hypotheses will be derived from the theory. The theory will also be linked with existing analyses that endogenize population growth and technological progress. Previous cross country empirical work on the determinants of economic growth will be extended to evaluate the macroeconomic significance of the kinds of time preference analysis that form the theoretical part of this research. The analysis will consider institutional and cultural elements that affect people's ability to make and enforce commitments. The institutional side will consider measures of the rule of law and political stability and other features of the legal environment that affect people's ability to organize financial markets and enter into contracts and other market relationships. The cultural side will assess aspects of religion, language, and ethnicity as possible influences on thrift, a propensity for honesty, and a willingness to work hard. In each case, the hypothesis to be tested is that the explanatory variables have joint influences across a group of dependent variables, including the rate of economic growth, the saving rate, the extent of financial market development, fertility decisions, and the intensity of investment in human capital ½ñ+¼^úá¼

宏观经济的标准长期模型——新古典增长模型——假设家庭偏好的简单形式，其中时间偏好率是恒定的。然而，最近的一些实验证据表明，家庭是短视的，因为短期内的时间偏好率非常高，但未来某个时间的日期之间的偏好率要低得多。该项目将评估这种偏好形式对可观察宏观经济行为的理论影响，然后测试跨国数据的假设。 新古典增长模型经过修改，允许非恒定的时间偏好率。如果家庭不能做出未来的消费选择，并且效用是对数的，那么就会发现类似于新古典模型标准结果的均衡。在该解决方案中，时间偏好的有效率很高，但恒定。尽管该模型对制度设计和其他政策具有潜在的重要影响——因为家庭将受益于承诺未来消费的能力——但从某种意义上说，其结果在观察上与传统增长模型的结果相同。当框架扩展以允许部分承诺能力时，就会出现一些可测试的假设。获得了更一般效用函数的稳态结果，并针对等弹性效用的情况计算出动态路径的一些属性。 进一步的理论研究将评估平衡的独特性。其他研究人员在类似的背景下也发现了均衡的多重性，但前提是家庭的视野是无限的。过渡动力学的性质将针对等弹性效用的情况进行数值计算，并从该理论中得出进一步可检验的假设。该理论还将与内生人口增长和技术进步的现有分析联系起来。 先前关于经济增长决定因素的跨国实证研究将被扩展，以评估构成本研究理论部分的时间偏好分析的宏观经济意义。分析将考虑影响人们做出和执行承诺的能力的制度和文化因素。制度方面将考虑法治和政治稳定的措施以及影响人们组织金融市场和签订合同及其他市场关系的能力的法律环境的其他特征。文化方面将评估宗教、语言和种族等方面对节俭、诚实倾向和努力工作意愿的可能影响。在每种情况下，要检验的假设是解释变量对一组因变量具有共同影响，包括经济增长率、储蓄率、金融市场发展程度、生育决策和人力资本投资强度 ½ñ+¼^úá⁄