Determinants of Economic Growth

9320504巴罗 本研究将聚焦于长期经济增长的决定因素这一关键经济问题。 这项工作将包括理论模型、经验估计和理论检验，以及相关数据集的构建和分发。 一个数据集载有1960年至1990年期间138个国家的小组数据。 这套数据的一个主要内容是按级别和性别分列的教育程度信息。 其他变量包括国民账户、人口统计、政治变量、政府活动和对外贸易。 另一组数据将包括美国各州以及欧洲主要国家、日本和加拿大地区的收入和移民数据。 对1960年至1985年期间约100个国家的真实的人均国内生产总值增长率的初步结果显示了一种“条件趋同”效应：如果保持初始人力资本（以教育和健康的形式）的恒定衡量标准，开始人均国内生产总值较低的国家往往增长得更快。 政府政策被证明会影响一个国家的长期地位。 结果表明，更好的人力资本，减少市场扭曲，更大程度的政治稳定，以及在非生产性领域更小的政府支出，促进了增长。 投资倾向也与增长正相关，但这种关系似乎在很大程度上反映了增长对投资的反向影响，而不是相反。 将继续开展这一经验性工作，并将对区域数据和大约30个国家的长期资料进行更多的研究。

9320504 Barro This research will focus on the key economic issue of the determinants of long-run economic growth. The work will include theoretical models, empirical estimation and testing of theories, and the construction and distribution of related data sets. One data set contains panel data for 138 countries over the period 1960 to 1990. A major element of this set is information on educational attainment by level and sex. Other variables cover national accounts, demographics, political variables, government activities, and foreign trade. Another data set will include figures on income and migration across the U.S. states and for regions of the major European countries, Japan, and Canada. Preliminary results on the growth rate of real per- capita Gross Domestic Product for about 100 countries from 1960 to 1985 reveal a "conditional convergence" effect: countries that begin with low per-capita GDP tend to grow faster if one holds constant measures of initial human capital (in the forms of education and health). Government policies are shown to influence a country's long-run position. The results indicate that growth is enhanced by better human capital, reduced market distortions, a greater degree of political stability, and smaller government spending in nonproductive areas. The propensity to invest is also positively related to growth, but it appears that much of this relationship reflects the reverse impact of growth on investment, rather than vice versa. This empirical work will be continued and additional research will be carried out on regional data and on the long-period information that is available for about 30 countries.