The Input - Output Approach to Demand- Shift Instrumental Variables Selection: Theory and Applications

传统的经济学观点认为，商业周期繁荣期间需求激增会引发通胀。在经济繁荣时期，需求增长快于产能增长；反过来，这种过剩需求导致劳动力和产品市场“紧张”，从而导致工资和物价上涨。虽然这一观点被经济学家、媒体和政策制定者广泛接受，但其实证基础值得怀疑，因为许多最近的研究表明，工资和物价通胀率与商业周期不相关，甚至呈负相关。研究者认为，这些最近的研究未能解决需求激增是否会导致工资和价格通胀的问题。通货膨胀与经济周期的相关性反映了供给因素和需求因素的影响。不利的供应冲击，如1973年和1979年的油价上涨，导致价格上涨和产量下降；这种冲击可能导致价格与商业周期出现负相关，即使需求冲击会产生工资-价格通胀。因此，对于试图确定旨在刺激短期产出增长的财政或货币政策的潜在通胀效应的政策制定者来说，只考察通胀与商业周期之间的相关性的研究是没有用的。这项研究将采用一种新的方法来解决需求冲击和工资价格通胀之间的关系。美国劳工统计局（Bureau of Labor Statistics）公布的投入产出表中的信息将用于确定分类行业的实际需求来源。这些信息使估计行业工资和价格对可观察到的行业需求冲击的反应成为可能。例如，如果投入产出表表明大多数木材用于建筑目的，则将调查木材工资和价格对建筑工业产出变动的反应。通过考察价格与行业需求之间的关系，而不仅仅是价格与行业产出之间的相关性，供应冲击对行业活动的影响将得到有效控制。因此，在检验旨在刺激总需求的财政和货币政策的潜在通胀影响方面，这些结果将比现有研究更有用。

Traditional economic wisdom holds that demand surges during business cycle booms generate inflation. Demand rises more quickly than capacity during booms; in turn, this excess demand produces "tight" labor and product markets and therefore rising wages and prices. While this wisdom is widely accepted by economists, the press and policymakers, its empirical foundations are questionable, as many recent studies show that rates of wage and price inflation are uncorrelated or even negatively correlated with the business cycle. It is the investigator's opinion that these recent studies fail to address the question of whether demand surges generate wage and price inflation. The correlation between inflation and the business cycle reflects the influence of both supply and demand factors. Adverse supply shocks, such as the oil price increases of 1973 and 1979, cause prices to rise and output to fall; such shocks can cause prices to appear negatively correlated with the business cycle even if demand shocks generate wage-price inflation. Studies examining only the correlation between inflation and the business cycle are thus not useful to policymakers attempting to determine the potential inflationary effects of fiscal or monetary policies designed to stimulate short-run output growth. This research will implement a new methodology for addressing the relationship between demand shocks and wage-price inflation. Information from input-output tables published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics will be used to identify the actual sources of demand for disaggregated industries. This information makes the estimation of the responses of industry wages and prices to observable industry demand shocks possible. For instance, if input-output tables indicate that most lumber is used for construction purposes, the response of lumber wages and prices to movements in construction industry output will be investigated. By examining the relationship between price and industry demand, rather than the mere correlation between price and industry output, the influence of supply shocks on industry activity will be effectively controlled. These results will therefore be more useful than existing research for examining the potential inflationary impact of fiscal and monetary policies designed to stimulate aggregate demand.