The Input - Output Approach to Demand- Shift Instrumental Variables Selection: Theory and Applications

需求转变工具变量选择的输入-输出方法：理论与应用

• 批准号: 9122346
• 负责人: John Shea
• 金额: $ 3.97万
• 依托单位: University of Wisconsin-Madison
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1992
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1992-03-01 至 1994-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9122346&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Input; Output; Approach; Demand; Shift

Traditional economic wisdom holds that demand surges during business cycle booms generate inflation. Demand rises more quickly than capacity during booms; in turn, this excess demand produces "tight" labor and product markets and therefore rising wages and prices. While this wisdom is widely accepted by economists, the press and policymakers, its empirical foundations are questionable, as many recent studies show that rates of wage and price inflation are uncorrelated or even negatively correlated with the business cycle. It is the investigator's opinion that these recent studies fail to address the question of whether demand surges generate wage and price inflation. The correlation between inflation and the business cycle reflects the influence of both supply and demand factors. Adverse supply shocks, such as the oil price increases of 1973 and 1979, cause prices to rise and output to fall; such shocks can cause prices to appear negatively correlated with the business cycle even if demand shocks generate wage-price inflation. Studies examining only the correlation between inflation and the business cycle are thus not useful to policymakers attempting to determine the potential inflationary effects of fiscal or monetary policies designed to stimulate short-run output growth. This research will implement a new methodology for addressing the relationship between demand shocks and wage-price inflation. Information from input-output tables published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics will be used to identify the actual sources of demand for disaggregated industries. This information makes the estimation of the responses of industry wages and prices to observable industry demand shocks possible. For instance, if input-output tables indicate that most lumber is used for construction purposes, the response of lumber wages and prices to movements in construction industry output will be investigated. By examining the relationship between price and industry demand, rather than the mere correlation between price and industry output, the influence of supply shocks on industry activity will be effectively controlled. These results will therefore be more useful than existing research for examining the potential inflationary impact of fiscal and monetary policies designed to stimulate aggregate demand.

传统的经济智慧认为， 商业周期的繁荣导致通货膨胀。 需求增长更快 在繁荣时期，这种过剩的需求会产生 “紧缩”的劳动力和产品市场，因此工资上涨， 价格 虽然这一智慧被经济学家广泛接受， 新闻界和决策者，它的经验基础是值得怀疑的， 正如最近的许多研究表明，工资和价格通胀率 与业务不相关甚至负相关 周期 研究人员认为，这些最近的研究未能 解决需求激增是否会产生工资的问题， 物价上涨。 通货膨胀与通货膨胀之间的关系 经济周期反映了供给和需求两方面的影响 因素 不利的供应冲击，如石油价格上涨 1973年和1979年，导致价格上涨，产量下降; 冲击可能会导致价格出现负相关， 即使需求冲击导致工资-价格通胀，也不会影响经济周期。 只研究通货膨胀和通货膨胀之间的关系的研究 因此，商业周期对试图 确定财政或货币政策的潜在通胀影响 旨在刺激短期产出增长的政策。 这项研究将实施一种新的方法来解决 需求冲击与工资价格通胀之间的关系。 来自联合国开发计划署（开发署） 劳动力统计数据将用于确定实际来源 对细分行业的需求。 这些信息使得 估计工业工资和价格对 可观察到的行业需求冲击。 例如，如果 投入产出表表明，大部分木材用于 建筑目的，木材工资和价格的反应， 并会研究建造业生产量的变动。 通过研究价格与行业需求之间的关系， 而不仅仅是价格和行业产出之间的相关性， 供应冲击对行业活动的影响将是 有效控制。 因此，这些结果将更加 比现有的研究更有用， 财政和货币政策对通货膨胀的影响， 刺激总需求。