Small Firms, Business Cycles and Monetary Policy

本研究的目的是分析小企业和大企业的周期性行为，并了解这两类企业在货币政策方面的不同反应。长期目标是评估最近的理论的重要性，这些理论强调信贷市场缺陷在商业周期传播和货币传导机制中的作用。对商业周期不同阶段公司行为的横向差异的关注，利用了这样的观点，即小公司比大公司更有可能面临获得信贷的问题。实证工作的中心是检查人口普查局提供的关于房地产和金融公司变量的面板数据。数据适用于制造业、批发贸易、零售贸易和采矿行业的公司。与现有的企业行为面板研究的一个重要区别是，企业的样本分布高度代表了每个行业中真实的企业人口。特别是，小公司被更准确地代表出来。这些数据的代表性将有助于推断这些结果与宏观经济行为的相关性。一个目标是量化面临财务约束的公司对产出、库存和投资的总波动性的影响。这项研究之所以重要，是因为它将更好地理解小企业行为与商业周期的相互作用。

The purpose of this research is to analyze the cyclical behavior of small versus large firms, and to understand the differential response of the two kinds of firms with respect to monetary policy. The long run objective is to assess the importance of recent theories which emphasize the role of credit market imperfections in the propagation of business cycles and in the monetary transmission mechanism. The focus on cross-sectional differences in firm behavior at different stages of the business cycle exploits that idea that small firms are more likely than large firms to face problems getting credit. The empirical work centers on examining panel data on real and financial firm variables provided by the Census Bureau. Data is available for firms in the manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail trade, and mining sectors. An important difference with existing panel studies of firm behavior is that the sample distribution of firms is highly representative of the true firm population within each sector. In particular, small firms are more accurately represented. The representative nature of these data will facilitate drawing inferences about the relevance of the results for macroeconomic behavior. An objective is to quantify the impact firms facing financial constraints have on the aggregate volatility of output, inventories, and investment. This research is important because it will provide a better understanding of the interaction of small firm behavior and the business cycle.