Managing Dynamic Policy Systems: Mental Models and Performance

成功管理动态决策任务是 人们普遍认为，这取决于决策者的充分认识， 动态环境的“心智模型”。 一个心理模型是 通常被认为是决策者 对动态任务的了解和理解。 这个项目 将探索心理模型--他们的测量，他们的 正确性及其与性能的关系。 要解决的核心问题是：在多大程度上 人类在动态环境中的表现能力 取决于他们对要管理的系统的理解？ 对任务的理解通过对应关系来表示 心智模型和系统模型之间的区别 这个问题在以前的研究中没有得到解决， 动态决策，因为a）使用的动态系统是 简单，并以一种能够最大限度地 对系统的理解，以及B）系统理解，即， 心理模型和系统模型之间的对应关系， 评估。 因此，无法确定 次优性能是否是由于缺乏理解 系统（不充分的心理模型），缺乏能力， 管理系统，即使它是理解的（无法使用 作为有效行动指南的模式），或两者兼有。 这个项目是判断之间的合作的结果 研究人员和系统动力学家。 动态政策模拟 JOBS计划的模式（一项旨在 让人们摆脱福利，进入劳动力市场）一直是 开发和验证。 该模型的用户界面还 它已被开发，并已被发现是一个可行的基础， 决策模拟。 在这个项目中，JOBS模型 将提供一个逼真的动态仿真平台 公共政策背景下的决策。 受试者将 包括政策专家（州社会服务专员， 工作人员）和新手（公共行政研究生）。 三种不同但相互关联的心理模型（“目的”） 模型、“手段”模型和系统功能模型）将被 在政策模拟之前和之后， 不同方法 模型的一致性和正确性，以及 三个方面的性能和质量之间的关系 将对模型进行评估。

Successful management of dynamic decision making tasks is widely thought to depend on the adequacy of the decision makers' "mental models" of the dynamic environment. A mental model is usually taken to be some representation of the decision maker's knowledge and understanding of the dynamic task. This project will explore mental models -- their measurement, their correctness, and their relation to performance. The central question to be addressed is: To what degree does the ability of humans to perform in dynamic environments depend on their understanding of the system to be managed? Understanding of the task is indicated by the correspondence between the mental model and the system model. This question has not been addressed in previous research on dynamic decision making because a) the dynamic systems used were simple and were described in a way that would maximize understanding of the systems, and b) system understanding, i.e., correspondence between mental models and system models, was not assessed. Therefore, it has not been possible to determine whether suboptimal performance was due to lack of understanding of the system (an inadequate mental model), lack of an ability to manage the system even though it is understood (inability to use the model as an effective guide to action), or both. This project is the result of collaboration between judgment researchers and system dynamicists. A dynamic policy simulation model of the JOBS program (a social services program intended to get people off of welfare and into the workforce) has been developed and validated. A user interface for the model has also been developed and it has been found to be a feasible basis for decision making simulations. In this project, the JOBS model will provide a platform for realistic simulation of dynamic decision making in a public policy context. Subjects will include policy experts (county social services commissioners and staff) and novices (graduate students in public administration). Three distinct but interrelated types of mental models ("ends" models, "means" models, and models of system functioning) will be assessed before and after the policy simulation using two different methods. Model coherence and correctness, and the relation between performance and quality of each of the three types of models will be evaluated.