Managing Dynamic Policy Systems: Mental Models and Performance

管理动态政策系统：心理模型和绩效

• 批准号: 9211521
• 负责人: David Andersen
• 金额: $ 7.72万
• 依托单位: SUNY at Albany
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1992
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1992-09-01 至 1994-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9211521&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Managing; Dynamic; Policy; Systems; Mental

Successful management of dynamic decision making tasks is widely thought to depend on the adequacy of the decision makers' "mental models" of the dynamic environment. A mental model is usually taken to be some representation of the decision maker's knowledge and understanding of the dynamic task. This project will explore mental models -- their measurement, their correctness, and their relation to performance. The central question to be addressed is: To what degree does the ability of humans to perform in dynamic environments depend on their understanding of the system to be managed? Understanding of the task is indicated by the correspondence between the mental model and the system model. This question has not been addressed in previous research on dynamic decision making because a) the dynamic systems used were simple and were described in a way that would maximize understanding of the systems, and b) system understanding, i.e., correspondence between mental models and system models, was not assessed. Therefore, it has not been possible to determine whether suboptimal performance was due to lack of understanding of the system (an inadequate mental model), lack of an ability to manage the system even though it is understood (inability to use the model as an effective guide to action), or both. This project is the result of collaboration between judgment researchers and system dynamicists. A dynamic policy simulation model of the JOBS program (a social services program intended to get people off of welfare and into the workforce) has been developed and validated. A user interface for the model has also been developed and it has been found to be a feasible basis for decision making simulations. In this project, the JOBS model will provide a platform for realistic simulation of dynamic decision making in a public policy context. Subjects will include policy experts (county social services commissioners and staff) and novices (graduate students in public administration). Three distinct but interrelated types of mental models ("ends" models, "means" models, and models of system functioning) will be assessed before and after the policy simulation using two different methods. Model coherence and correctness, and the relation between performance and quality of each of the three types of models will be evaluated.

人们普遍认为，动态决策任务的成功管理取决于决策者动态环境“心智模型”的充分性。 心智模型通常被认为是决策者对动态任务的知识和理解的某种表示。 该项目将探索心理模型——它们的测量、它们的正确性以及它们与绩效的关系。 要解决的核心问题是：人类在动态环境中的表现能力在多大程度上取决于他们对所管理系统的理解？ 对任务的理解是通过心理模型和系统模型之间的对应关系来表示的。 这个问题在之前的动态决策研究中尚未得到解决，因为a）使用的动态系统很简单，并且以最大限度地理解系统的方式进行描述，b）系统理解，即心智模型和系统模型之间的对应关系，没有被评估。 因此，无法确定性能欠佳是否是由于缺乏对系统的理解（心智模型不足）、即使理解了系统但仍缺乏管理系统的能力（无法使用模型作为有效的行动指南）或两者兼而有之。 该项目是判断研究人员和系统动力学家合作的结果。 JOBS 计划（旨在让人们摆脱福利并进入劳动力市场的社会服务计划）的动态政策模拟模型已经开发和验证。 该模型的用户界面也已开发出来，并且已被证明是决策模拟的可行基础。 在这个项目中，JOBS 模型将为公共政策背景下动态决策的真实模拟提供一个平台。 受试者将包括政策专家（县社会服务专员和工作人员）和新手（公共管理研究生）。 将使用两种不同的方法在政策模拟之前和之后评估三种不同但相互关联的心理模型类型（“目的”模型、“手段”模型和系统功能模型）。 将评估模型的一致性和正确性，以及三类模型中每种模型的性能和质量之间的关系。