Unemployment Dynamics in Czechoslovakia During the Transition

转型期间捷克斯洛伐克的失业动态

• 批准号: 9213310
• 负责人: Katherine Terrell
• 金额: $ 15.25万
• 依托单位: University of Pittsburgh
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1993
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1993-02-15 至 1994-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9213310&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Unemployment; Dynamics; Czechoslovakia; During; Transition

This study undertakes a rigorous analysis of unemployment dynamics in the transition from central planning to a market economy. As unemployment rises rapidly in all the transforming economies, the issues of the determinants of unemployment and the optimal policies to cope with the explosive situation have come to the forefront of the public policy debate. The project makes two major contributions toward these issues. First, it uses unique Czechoslovak data and combines traditional with frontier statistical analysis to examine three sets of important research questions. The first set relates to the origins and incidence of unemployment. What are the characteristics of the unemployed? Are certain types of workers (e.g., older, female or poorly educated workers) at greater risk of being laid off than others? The second set of questions focuses on identifying the determinants of the duration of unemployment spells. In this context, the study examines how unemployment duration varies with enterprise characteristics, individuals' demographic and regional characteristics, changing demand conditions, and changes in important elements of the unemployment insurance system. The third set is concerned with estimating and explaining variations in the transition rates out of unemployment to other states (in or out of the labor market). For example, what is the probability that a worker with certain characteristics and who was previously employed in a given sector will leave unemployment for the small scale private sector or for training, etc.? Unlike many previous studies of unemployment, this project relates the incidence and duration of unemployment to firm specific characteristics. The second contribution of the study consists of developing, in conjunction with the Czech and Slovak Ministries of Labor and Social Affairs and the Federal Statistical Office, sampling schemes and estimation methods for further analysis of the inflow to unemployment. The main question to be addressed is how the large public and newly privatized firms make their layoff decisions. Moreover, the new data set would allow for the estimation of the transition rates from employment to unemployment. The major scientific value of the proposal stems from its ability to collect and analyze informative data sets related to one of the most important economic phenomena in this century. The dramatic changes in the Central and East European economies in this period provide us with much greater variation in the explanatory variables than has been witnessed in any middle income or advanced economy. The study will hence be able to capture major behavioral patterns and contribute significantly to our understanding of the dynamics of labor markets moving towards an equilibrium during the transition.

这项研究对失业动态进行了严格的分析 从中央计划经济向市场经济过渡。 作为 在所有转型经济体中，失业率迅速上升， 失业的决定因素和最优政策问题 来科普爆炸性的局势， 公共政策辩论。 该项目有两个主要内容 对这些问题的贡献。 首先，它使用独特的捷克斯洛伐克数据，并结合传统的 用前沿统计分析来检验三组 重要的研究问题。 第一组与起源有关 和失业率。 有什么特点 失业？ 是某些类型的工人（例如，老年人、女性或 受教育程度低的工人）被解雇的风险比 其他人呢？ 第二组问题的重点是确定 失业持续时间的决定因素。 在这 在这种背景下，研究考察了失业持续时间如何随 企业特征、个人人口统计学和区域 特点、不断变化的需求条件以及 失业保险制度的重要组成部分。 第三 一套是关于估计和解释的变化， 从失业过渡到其他国家的过渡率（在 劳动力市场）。 例如，a的概率是多少？ 具有某些特征的工人，以前曾受雇于 在一个特定的部门将离开失业的小规模 私营部门或培训等？ 不像许多以前的研究 本项目涉及失业的发生率和持续时间， 失业具有企业的具体特征。 该研究的第二个贡献是， 与捷克和斯洛伐克劳动部合作， 社会事务和联邦统计局，抽样方案 和估计方法，以进一步分析流入量， 失业 需要解决的主要问题是大型 公共和新私有化的公司作出裁员决定。 此外，新的数据集将允许估计 从就业到失业的过渡率。 该提案的主要科学价值源于其能力 收集和分析与其中一个相关的信息数据集， 这是本世纪最重要的经济现象 的戏剧性 这一时期中欧和东欧经济的变化 为我们提供了更大的解释变量的变化 比任何中等收入或发达经济体都要多。 因此，这项研究将能够捕捉主要的行为模式 并对我们理解 劳动力市场在2010年达到均衡 过渡