Natural Sample Spaces and Judgment Under Uncertainty

自然样本空间与不确定性下的判断

• 批准号: 9221779
• 负责人: Russell Fazio
• 金额: $ 9.46万
• 依托单位: Indiana University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1993
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1993-02-01 至 1995-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9221779&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Natural; Sample; Spaces; Judgment; Under

ABSTRACT Judging the probability of uncertain events is essential for effective decision making. Yet people make many systemic errors in their intuitive judgments. These errors impede important decisions that people make on a daily basis, such as medical diagnosis, political and legal policy-making, and planning for the future. The specific aims of the research are to evaluate and explore the implications of a conceptual framework developed by Gavanski and Hui (1992) for understanding the mental processes that underlie judgements of probability. Gavanski and Hui have argued that, contrary to previous theories, people are not necessarily bad statisticians, in that their judgment strategies are not fundamentally incompatible with statistical principles. However, they are sometimes bad samplers, in that they may access inappropriate sets of information from memory for making their judgments. Both accurate and inaccurate judgments can be understood according to what sets of information people access. This research will (a) test some basic assumptions underlying the framework, (b) apply the framework to understanding the processes by which cognitive organization (i.e., the categorization of information in memory) influence people's ability to judge various probabilities, (c) evaluate novel predictions of the framework for conditions under which people will make either accurate or inaccurate judgments, and (d) use the framework to account for and clarify the processes underlying some established judgment phenomena. The long term objective of the research is to provide an understanding of how people judge probability and when and why they make judgment errors. In addition, the research will lead to the identification of tasks particularly likely to evoke judgment errors and to the development of techniques for improving people's judgments and decisions.

摘要 判断不确定事件的概率对于 有效决策。 然而人们会犯许多系统性错误 他们的直觉判断。 这些错误阻碍了重要的 人们每天都在做的决定，比如医疗 分析、政治和法律的决策以及 未来 研究的具体目的是评估 并探讨一个概念框架的含义， Gavanski和Hui（1992）对心理过程的理解 概率判断的基础 加万斯基和许有 他认为，与以前的理论相反， 他们的判断策略 这与统计学原理并不矛盾。 然而，他们有时是坏的采样器，因为他们可能会访问 从记忆中提取不适当的信息， 判断。 准确和不准确的判断都可能 根据人们获取的信息来理解。 这项研究将（a）测试一些基本假设， 框架，（B）应用框架来理解过程 通过哪种认知组织（即，的分类 记忆中的信息）影响人们的判断能力 各种概率，（c）评估新的预测， 在这种情况下，人们会做出 准确或不准确的判断，以及（d）使用该框架， 解释并澄清一些既定的 判断现象。 研究的长期目标是 让我们了解人们如何判断概率， 他们何时以及为何会犯判断错误。此外，研究 将导致确定特别可能 引起判断错误和技术的发展， 改善人们的判断和决策。