Large-Scale Influences on Tropical Cyclogenesis

这个项目的最终目标是理解为什么一些微弱的热带扰动变得“有组织”并加强为大风暴，而其他类似的扰动却没有。在他之前的工作中，Molinari博士表明对流层上层的气旋涡度异常经常与成熟的飓风相互作用，产生新的增强。使用类似的技术，从大规模过程的角度，他将研究飓风发展的初始阶段。将特别注意(1)垂直切变和对流层上层气旋涡度的相反影响，以及(2)通常先于热带气旋发展的对流层下层“涌浪”的起源和影响。方法将是进行若干案例研究，采用大规模分析和现有飞机侦察数据。这项研究的重要性在于它对改进飓风预报的潜在贡献。

The ultimate goal of this project is to understand why some weak tropical disturbances become "organized" and intensify into major storms while other similar disturbances do not. In his previous work, Dr. Molinari showed that upper tropospheric cyclonic vorticity anomalies often interact with mature hurricanes to produce renewed intensification. Using similar techniques and from the perspective of large-scale processes, he will examine the initial stages of hurricane development. Particular attention will be given to (1) the opposing influences of vertical shear and upper tropospheric cyclonic vorticity, and (2) the origin and effects of lower tropospheric "surges", which often precede tropical cyclone development. The approach will be to conduct several case studies, employing large-scale analyses and available aircraft reconnaissance data. The importance of this research lies in its potential contribution to improved hurricane prediction.