Mechanisms of Intensity Change in Sheared Tropical Cyclones

该项目将使用NOAA/ hrd衍生的飞机数据，包括双多普勒风和反射率，以及许多其他数据来源，来评估垂直风切变对热带气旋影响的现有理论。重点将放在“低空路径”上，在低空路径中，由下沉气流进入边界层产生的低等效位温空气到达眼壁，降低风暴强度。在存在中至大垂直风切变的情况下，将进行不同强度变化的个案研究。目标是了解低层路径的各个方面，包括冷下降气流、边界层恢复、层状和对流降水的作用。知识价值：这里讨论的问题是预测热带气旋强度变化的基础。了解热带气旋强度变化的关键过程是一项迫切需要的科学工作，它将导致飓风预报的改进。更广泛的影响：这些影响包括研究生的教育和HRD/NOAA收集的优秀数据库的使用。这些纳税人资助的宝贵数据没有得到充分利用。研究生教育包括论文写作指导和演讲技巧的培养。每两年共同主办一次东北热带会议，为研究生和博士后提供额外的教育经验。通过发表在顶级专业期刊上的文章和大量的演讲来传播工作。

The project will use NOAA/HRD-derived aircraft data, including dual-Doppler winds and reflectivity, plus numerous additional sources of data, to evaluate existing theories of vertical wind shear effects on tropical cyclones. The focus will be on the "low-level pathway" in which low equivalent potential temperature air produced by downdrafts into the boundary layer reaches the eyewall and reduces storm intensity. Case studies will be conducted for varying intensity changes in the presence of moderate to large vertical wind shear. The goal is to understand every aspect of the low-level pathway, including the roles of cold downdrafts, boundary layer recovery, and stratiform and convective precipitation.Intellectual Merit: The questions that are addressed here are fundamental to predicting tropical cyclone intensity change. The understanding of key processes in tropical cyclone intensity change constitutes a direly needed scientific endeavor, which would lead to improvement of hurricane forecasting.Broader Impacts: These include the education of graduate students and the use of an outstanding database collected by HRD/NOAA. These valuable taxpayer-funded data have not been fully utilized. The graduate student education includes guidance with the writing of theses and papers and development of presentation skills. Additional educational experience for graduate students and postdocs is produced by co-sponsoring the Northeast Tropical Conference every two years. Work is disseminated through articles in top professional journals and via numerous presentations.