Explaining Political Transitions in Africa

这项调查比较和分析了撒哈拉以南非洲最近和正在进行的政权过渡。从1989年11月到1992年年底，超过三分之二的非洲政府对抗议者的要求作出了回应，要求在政体内加强多元化和竞争。这是一代人中第一次，现任领导人释放了政治犯，容忍了独立报纸的出现，并允许反对派政党的成立。到1992年底，已有14个非洲国家举行了多党选举，另有12个国家定于1993年举行多党选举。赞比亚和贝宁等国实现了和平的民主过渡，通过选举将权力移交给新政府。然而，非洲的政权转型并没有像东欧或拉丁美洲的民主化进程那样吸引学者和媒体的关注。因此，它们既没有被完整地记录下来，也没有被很好地理解。该项目将解释非洲政治转型的轨迹和结果，特别是它们是否以自由公正的选举结束，其结果是否为所有竞争政党所接受。该研究提出了一个问题：为什么有些政权进行了政治改革，而另一些却没有？政治转型是否遵循类似的模式，还是在轨迹和结果上存在重大分歧？哪一种政权有可能和平过渡到民主，哪一种政权会受到破坏和逆转？非洲的政治转型在多大程度上与世界其他地区相似或不同？如何解释这些差异呢？非洲民主的长期前景如何？为了解决这些问题，调查人员汇编和散发了1989- 1994年期间撒哈拉以南非洲47个国家的过渡事件、政权特征和政治资源的跨国计算机数据库。这个数据库完成后，将提供关于每次过渡期间的政治事件的独特全面和容易取得的资料来源。完成后的数据库将提供给决策者和学者，让他们使用数据库来比较和对比不同的国家经验，从而增加我们对政治过渡的理解。此外，研究人员分析了数据库中的事实，以发展和测试非洲转型的理论。大多数关于民主化的当代研究要么集中在政治行为者之间高度偶然的相互作用上，要么集中在深层次的社会经济变量上。该项目的前提是，政治转型可以通过参考政治制度的近似结构来最有利地解释，政治制度界定了行动者在日常政治中塑造事件的机会和能力。本研究从这些政治制度变量的角度分析了撒哈拉以南非洲地区政治转型的前景和问题。

This investigation compares and analyzes recent and ongoing regime transitions in Sub-Saharan Africa. Between November, 1989, and the end of 1992, over two-thirds of Africa's governments responded to the demands of protesters for greater pluralism and competition within the polity. For the first time in a generation, incumbent leaders released political prisoners, tolerated the emergence of independent newspapers, and permitted the formation of opposition political parties. By the end of 1992, multiparty elections had been held in fourteen African countries and were scheduled for 1993 in a dozen more. A peaceful democratic transition, with an electoral transfer of power to a new government, occurred in Zambia and Benin, among other countries. Yet Africa's regime transitions have not attracted the same scholarly and media attention as the democratization processes in Eastern Europe or Latin America. As a result, they are neither yet fully documented nor well understood. This project will explain the trajectory and outcomes of political transitions in Africa, especially whether they conclude in a free and fair election whose results are accepted by all contending parties. The research asks: why do some regimes undergo political reform while others do not? Have political transitions followed a similar pattern or are there major divergences in trajectories and outcomes? Which sort of regimes are likely to make a peaceful transition to democracy and which are subject to disruption and reversal? To what extent are political transitions in Africa similar or different to those in other parts of the world? How can any such differences be explained? What are the long term prospects for democracy in Africa? To address these questions, the investigators compile and disseminate a cross-national computerized database of transition events, regime characteristics, and political resources for the forty seven countries of sub-Saharan Africa for the period 1989- 1994. When completed, this database will provide a uniquely comprehensive and easily accessible source of information on the political events surrounding each transition. The completed database will be made available to decision makers and scholars to let them use the database to compare and contrast the different national experiences and thereby increase our understanding of political transitions. In addition, the researchers analyze facts from the database to develop and test a theory of transitions in Africa. Most contemporary research on democratization has focused either on the highly contingent interaction of political actors or on deep socioeconomic variables. The project starts from the premise that political transitions can be most profitably explained with reference to the proximate structure of political institutions which delimits the opportunities and capacities of actors to shape events in everyday politics. This research analyzes the prospects and problems of political transition in sub-Saharan Africa in terms of these political-institutional variables.