Enduring Rivalries

9312742戈尔茨历史学家通常批评行为模式的研究是“非历史的”，并抱怨这些研究将一组完全不同的事件混为一谈，而不考虑历史背景。这项调查始于一个简单的观察，即许多战争都涉及同一组国家，如印度和巴基斯坦，或以色列及其阿拉伯邻国。印度和巴基斯坦在过去的45年里打了三场战争，第一次战争的结果可以说对随后战争的发生和时机产生了很大的影响。同样，自1948年以来，以色列和阿拉伯国家曾四次就领土问题发生冲突。从这些例子来看，认为一场冲突应放在以往冲突的历史背景下看待的主张似乎是可信的。研究人员建议调查持久的竞争环境是如何与权力关系和系统结构相互作用的，是权力关系和系统结构的原因和影响。因此，他们关心持久的竞争如何开始，何时升级为战争，如何结束，以及哪些影响持久竞争的因素可以由国家决策者操纵。鉴于国际体系中持久竞争的重要性，本项目调查了1816年至1986年期间的总共45起持久竞争。在整个研究项目中贯穿着几个主要主题：1)持久竞争的概念强调国际冲突在空间和时间上的相互联系，2)持久竞争有一个“生命周期”--它们开始、发展和死亡，3)国家一级和二元过程与系统一级的现象相互作用。具体地说，研究人员解决了以下问题：1)持久的竞争是如何开始的？他们着眼于国家如何陷入反复发生的冲突，而不是那些能够迅速有效地解决分歧的国家；2)持久的竞争如何结束？他们关心的是持久的竞争何时结束，以及围绕这一目的的条件(和平或暴力)；3)持久竞争的动力是什么？这里的具体焦点是理解在竞争中战争的时机，以及持久竞争中的冲突如何受到过去(以及未来的前景)冲突和结果的影响；以及，4)持久竞争对其他冲突有什么影响？在这里，他们研究了一个持久的竞争对手的关系以及与其他国家的冲突倾向是如何受到他们参与激烈竞争的影响的(例如，冷战对美国与其他国家的关系有什么影响？)

9312742 Goertz Historians commonly criticize studies in a behavioral mode as being "ahistorical" and complain that these studies lump together a disparate group of events without regard for historical context. This investigation starts from the simple observation that many wars have involved the same set of states, such as India and Pakistan, or Israel and its Arab neighbors. India and Pakistan have fought three wars in the last forty-five years, with the outcomes of the first wars arguably having a strong influence on the occurrence and timing of the wars that followed. Similarly, Israel and Arab states have clashed over territory four times since 1948. From these examples, the proposition that one conflict should be viewed in the historical context of previous conflicts seems plausible. The researchers propose to investigate how the enduring rivalry context interacts with, is the cause of, and is the effect of power relationships and system structure. Thus, they are concerned with how enduring rivalries begin, when they escalate to war, how they end, and what factors affecting enduring rivalries are manipulable by national decision makers. Given the importance of enduring rivalries in the international system, this project investigates a total of forty-five enduring rivalries over the period 1816-1986. Several major themes run throughout this research project: 1) the concept of enduring rivalries emphasizes the interconnection of international conflict over space and time, 2) enduring rivalries have a "life cycle" - they begin, develop, and die, and 3) state-level and dyadic processes interact with system level phenomena. Specifically, the researchers address the following questions: 1) how do enduring rivalries begin? They look at how states become entangled in recurring conflict in contrast to those that are able to resolve their differences quickly and effectively; 2) how do enduring rivalries end? They are concerned with when enduring rivalri es are terminated and the conditions (peaceful or violent) surrounding that end; 3) what are the dynamics of enduring rivalries? The specific foci here are understanding the timing of war in rivalries as well as how conflict in enduring rivalries is influenced by past (and the prospect of future) conflict and outcomes; and, 4) what effect do enduring rivalries have on other conflict? Here, they look at how an enduring rival's relationships, and the propensity for conflict, with other states is affected by their participation in an intense competition (e.g., what effect did the Cold War have on U.S. relations with other states?)