Effect of Demographic and Economic Cycles on Migration Timing and Regional Migraproduction

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9408379 PANDIT This proposal will examine, theoretically and empirically, the influence of demographic cycle cohort effects and economic cycle period effects on migration timing. Previous literature has shown that these cycles are highly influential in determining the "level" of migration: peak migration rates of young adults tend to be lower for large cohorts and during recessionary economic times because of competitive labor markets and depressed job opportunities. This study suggests that demographic and economic cycles may also influence the "timing" of migration. It builds on studies that have shown that individuals born into large cohorts or those facing difficult economic conditions in their early childhood frequently postpone their entry into the labor force. The first part of the research uses 1948-1988 Current Population Survey data to investigate (1) the effect of a cohort's location in the demographic cycle on the timing of its peak migration, and (2) the effect of economic conditions and trends at a given time on the timing of peak migration rates. The second part of the research will explore how regional demographic and economic cycles, through their effect on the level and timing of migration influence lifetime migration expectancy or migraproduction. Using regional data on cohort size and economic conditions over time, migration age-schedules and migraproduction rates are estimated for the nine U.S. census regions. The findings from the first part of the study will contribute to the theoretical literature on the influence of both demographic and macroeconomic conditions on behavior. Findings from the second part of the study will refine our understanding of macroeconomic influences on spatial population flows. Overall, this study will make an important contribution to the linkage of demographic and economic cycles to individual behavior which, in turn, will provide new policy insights into the causes and consequences of migration within the U.S. ***