Studies in Monetary Theory

货币理论研究

• 批准号: 9408649
• 负责人: Robert Lucas
• 金额: $ 16.67万
• 依托单位: University of Chicago
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1994
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1994-11-15 至 1998-10-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9408649&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Studies; Monetary; Theory

9408649 Lucas For the first time since explicitly dynamic macroeconomic models were first developed in the 1930s, we have available a class of theories that are squarely in the general equilibrium tradition; built up from assumptions on preferences, technology, and market structure. In the ten years since the introduction of the first real business cycle model, a great deal of useful theoretical and computational experience has been accumulated, evidence from a wide range of sources has been brought to bear on key parameters, and people have begun to apply the standard methods of neoclassical welfare analysis to macroeconomic questions. These are exciting and promising technical developments, but they have been bound together with a particular substantive view of the nature of business cycles: that productivity changes have been the main source of economic instability. As a result, macroeconomists who are convinced of the importance of monetary shocks and nominal rigidities have made little use of these developments. This project addresses the question of how to best integrate the analysis of real and monetary forces in a general equilibrium framework with well- specified microfoundations. This project pursues theoretical research on the business cycle effects of monetary instability. A framework is proposed for a unified treatment of the economy's response to productivity shocks and of market malfunctions that transmit monetary disturbances in other sectors of the economy. The potential of this framework in accounting for the behavior of production, prices, and interest rates is described, Some central questions are identified, and a program of theoretical, numerical, and empirical research on these question is pursued.

9408649卢卡斯自20世纪30年代首次开发出明确的动态宏观经济模型以来，我们首次提供了一类完全遵循一般均衡传统的理论；这些理论建立在对偏好、技术和市场结构的假设之上。在引入第一个真实经济周期模型的十年中，积累了大量有用的理论和计算经验，从广泛的来源获得了关键参数的证据，人们开始将新古典福利分析的标准方法应用于宏观经济问题。这些都是令人兴奋和有希望的技术发展，但它们与对商业周期性质的一种特殊的实质性观点捆绑在一起：生产率变化一直是经济不稳定的主要来源。因此，那些确信货币冲击和名义僵化的重要性的宏观经济学家几乎没有利用这些动态。这个项目解决的问题是，如何在一个具有明确的微观基础的一般均衡框架内，最好地将实际力量和货币力量的分析结合起来。本项目对货币不稳定的经济周期效应进行理论研究。提出了一个框架，统一处理经济对生产率冲击的反应和对将货币干扰传导到其他经济部门的市场失灵的反应。描述了这一框架在解释生产、价格和利率行为方面的潜力，确定了一些核心问题，并对这些问题进行了理论、数值和实证研究。