Global Macroeconomic Interdependence: New Foundations

全球宏观经济相互依存：新基础

• 批准号: 9409641
• 负责人: Maurice OBSTFELD
• 金额: $ 35.4万
• 依托单位: National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1994
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1994-07-01 至 1998-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9409641&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Global; Macroeconomic; Interdependence; New; Foundations

The conceptual framework for international macroeconomic policy analysis has evolved little over the past decade. The aggregative sticky-price model is still the dominant paradigm in policy circles world wide. It underpins the international macro- econometric models used by government agencies and international institutions. But even more importantly, the basic lessons of these models permeate all levels of policy discussion. While the shortcomings of these models have long been recognized, academic research has remained largely dormant. There have been significant advances in the study of flexible-price international macro models over this period, but thus far these models have had virtually no policy impact. It is understandable that policy makers are reluctant to ignore the familiar sticky-price models simply because they are out of fashion among theorists. The goal of this project is to incorporate new models of price rigidities into an explicitly intertemporal framework that can adequately account for the long and short run effects of current account imbalances, government fiscal deficits, and their impacts on other macroeconomic variables. The resulting analytical framework offers a fresh perspective on a broad range of international economic issues, including exchange rate overshooting, optimum currency areas, the fiscal-monetary mix, and strategic aspects of policy interdependence.

过去十年来，国际宏观经济政策分析的概念框架没有什么变化。 总体粘性价格模型仍然是世界范围内政策界的主导范式。它是政府机构和国际机构使用的国际宏观经济计量模型的基础。 但更重要的是，这些模式的基本教训渗透到政策讨论的各个层面。 虽然这些模型的缺点早已被认识到，但学术研究在很大程度上仍然处于休眠状态。 在此期间，在研究弹性价格国际宏观模型方面取得了重大进展，但迄今为止，这些模型几乎没有产生任何政策影响。可以理解的是，政策制定者不愿意忽视熟悉的粘性价格模型，仅仅是因为它们在理论家中已经过时。 该项目的目标是将新的价格刚性模型纳入一个明确的跨期框架，该框架可以充分说明经常账户失衡、政府财政赤字及其对其他宏观经济变量的影响的长期和短期影响。 由此产生的分析框架提供了一个新的角度对广泛的国际经济问题，包括汇率超调，最佳货币区，财政货币组合，政策相互依存的战略方面。