Long Range Streamflow and Drought Prediction

长程径流和干旱预测

• 批准号: 9421030
• 负责人: John Dracup
• 金额: $ 26.38万
• 依托单位: University of California-Los Angeles
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1995
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1995-04-01 至 1999-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9421030&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Long; Range; Streamflow; Drought; Prediction

9421030 Dracup The three primary objectives of this research are as follows: 1) To develop a long range tool, one that will predict streamflow and drought six to twelve months in advance. 2) To investigate the connection between climatic variations and regional hydrologic processes and, in support of this, to identify regions that respond specifically to ENSO events. 3) To assemble, with the assistance of international collaborators, a Pacific Rim streamflow and drought indice data set. The research plan and methods can be summarized as follows: 1) With the cooperation of several Pacific Rim researchers, to compile a streamflow and drought indice data set that is the basis of this research effort and which will be made available to the public. 2) To use the statistical methods of harmonic analysis and spatial cross correlation analysis in identifying regions of coherent response to ENSO. 3) To quantify the ENSO impact by evaluating the shift in the probability distributions of of La Nina, Non-Enso, and El Nino events. Boxplots will represent the 10th, 30th, 50th, 70th, and 90th percentile values of each distribution. 4) To develop streamflow and drought prediction models based on fuzzy concepts, one model to be based on fuzzy rules, the other on fuzzy regression. The fuzzy ruled- based model can be viewed as the prediction of a hydrologic variable condition upon atmospheric circulation patterns. 5) To apply the prediction models to the western U.S. The time period of 1948-1988 will be used for calibration and verification of the models, and these models will then be applied to the other relevant regions of the Pacific Rim. Modifications will be made to reflect the regional atmospheric conditions. The significance of this research will be its major contribution to long range prediction of streamflow and drought. Current streamf low forecasting techniques rely on known precipitation quantities and are limited to forecasts of three to six months in advance. This proposed research relies on large scale circulation patterns that occur six to eight months in advance of a streamflow or drought. Their use may make possible predictions that could be given as much as a year in advance. Secondly, a unique data base that will support future research, far beyond that included within this proposal, will be assembled and available. Finally, the work of international collaboration will not only forge new international research links, as large data gaps are being filled in, but the possibility remains of conducting further research using this group of international collaborators as a base.

小行星9421030 本研究的三个主要目标如下： 1)开发一个长期的工具，一个将预测径流和干旱六到 提前十二个月。 2)探讨气候变化与区域水文的关系 为支持这一进程，确定具体应对以下问题的区域： ENSO事件。 3)在国际合作者的协助下， 径流和干旱指数数据集。 研究计划和方法可概括如下： 1)在几位环太平洋地区研究人员的合作下， 干旱指数数据集是这项研究工作的基础， 提供给公众。 2)利用谐波分析和空间互相关等统计方法 分析确定对厄尔尼诺/南方涛动作出一致反应的区域。 3)通过评估厄尔尼诺/南方涛动概率分布的变化， 拉尼娜、非恩索和厄尔尼诺事件。 箱形图将代表第10，30， 每个分布的第50、第70和第90百分位数值。 4)为了开发基于模糊概念的径流和干旱预测模型， 一种是基于模糊规则，另一种是基于模糊回归。 模糊的规则- 模型可以看作是对水文变量条件的预测 对大气环流模式的影响 5)为了将预测模型应用于美国西部，1948-1988年的时间段将 用于校准和验证模型，然后将这些模型 适用于太平洋沿岸的其他相关地区。 将对以下内容进行修改： 反映区域大气状况。 这项研究的意义在于它将为径流和干旱的长期预报做出重大贡献。 目前的径流预报技术依赖于已知的降水量，并限于提前三至六个月的预报。 这项拟议中的研究依赖于大规模的环流模式，这些模式发生在径流或干旱之前的六到八个月。 它们的使用可能会提前一年做出预测。 第二，将收集和提供一个独特的数据库，以支持今后的研究，远远超出本提案所包括的研究。 最后，国际合作工作不仅将建立新的国际研究联系，因为正在填补巨大的数据空白，而且仍然有可能利用这一国际合作者群体作为基础开展进一步的研究。