Studies in Postwar Monetary Policy

[422584]罗默这个项目调查了战后美国货币政策的各个方面。第一部分调查了为什么紧缩的公开市场操作通常会提高长期利率。这项研究使用了美联储的内部通胀预测和私人预测来检验一个假设，即紧缩政策行动提高了长期利率，因为市场参与者从这些行动中推断出美联储对未来通胀的不利信息。这项研究测试了美联储是否掌握了市场参与者所不知道的有关通胀的有用信息，当其对通胀的预测高于民间预测时，美联储是否倾向于收紧政策，以及当美联储收紧政策时，民间对通胀的预测是否会向上修正。这项研究还测试了美联储政策的变化是否与持有不同期限证券的溢价变化有关。该项目的第二部分使用了美联储干预银行以现行利率获得资金的能力时提供的证据，以调查信贷市场不完善对宏观经济的重要性。许多理论认为经济总量行为中的这种不完善起着重要作用。但信贷市场运作的大多数衡量指标可能受到影响总体活动的其他因素的影响，这一事实使得这些理论难以检验。然而，由于美联储的直接信贷行动是专门针对信贷市场的，它们不太可能通过这些市场以外的任何渠道影响经济。因此，本研究将利用这些行动提供的证据来检验信贷市场中断对总定价行为、投资、库存积累和其他变量的影响。研究的其他部分将调查货币政策对通货膨胀的反应，以及是否有通货膨胀的措施可以提供潜在通货膨胀率变化的即时证据。

9422584 Romer This project investigates a variety of aspects of monetary policy in the postwar United States. The first part investigates why contractionary open-market operations typically raise long-term interest rates. The research uses the Federal Reserve's internal inflation forecast and private forecasts to test the hypothesis that contractionary policy actions raise the long-term rates because market participants infer from the actions that the Federal Reserve has unfavorable information about future inflation. The research tests whether the Federal Reserve has useful information about inflation beyond what is known to market participants, whether it tends to tighten when its forecasts of inflation are higher than private forecasts, and whether private forecasts of inflation are revised upward when the Federal Reserve tightens. The research also tests whether changes in Federal Reserve policy are associated with changes in the premia for holding securities of different maturities. A second part of the project uses the evidence provided by times when the Federal Reserve interfered with banks' ability to obtain funds at prevailing interest rates to investigate the macroeconomic importance of credit market imperfections. Many theories assign an important role to such imperfections in the behavior of economic aggregates. But the fact most measures of the functioning of credit markets may be affected by other factors that influence aggregate activity makes these theories difficult to test. Since the Federal Reserve's direct credit actions were aimed specifically at credit markets, however, it is unlikely that they could have affected the economy through any channel other than through these markets. The research will therefore use the evidence provided by these actions to examine the effects of credit market disruptions on aggregate pricing behavior, investment, inventory accumulation, and other variables. Additional portions of the research will in vestigate the response of monetary policy to inflation and whether there are measures of inflation that provide prompt evidence of changes in the underlying inflation rate.