Predictions of Magnetic Activity Induced Hazards to Ground and Space Assets

这个小企业创新研究第一阶段项目提议开发一个系统，以预测电离层电流和相关影响，例如极光椭圆加热的增强，密度不规则性和客户特定位置的地面感应电流。这些预报将直接依赖于对太阳风速度、密度和行星际磁场的实时测量。本文提出了一种新的方法--状态空间法，用于地磁活动间隔和亚暴发生的分类和预报。将这种方法应用于空间天气预报将首次提供即将发生的地磁暴和亚暴活动的1至2小时预报，可用于改善配电、管道管理和六西格玛制造等地面业务，并对通信、导航和空间业务的功能和可靠性产生积极影响。作为目前为NOAA空间环境服务中心（SESC）和空军空间预报中心（AFSFC）开发的空间天气预报系统的补充，拟议的产品将为商业和政府空间和地面应用提供客户特定的预报。在该拟议系统的第三阶段结束时，使命研究公司为商业和政府客户提供了一项增值空间气象服务，补充了AFSFC和SESC的能力。

This Small Business Innovative Research Phase I project proposes to develop a system to forecast ionospheric currents and related effects, such as enhancements in the auroral oval heating, density irregularities and ground induced currents at customer specific locations . These forecasts will depend directly on real-time measurements of the solar wind velocity, density and interplanetary magnetic field. A novel, new method, the state-space approach, has been developed for classifying and predicting active geomagnetic intervals and substorm occurrences. Application of this method to space weather forecasting will provide, for the first time, 1 to 2 hour forecasts of impending geomagnetic storm and substorm activity which can be used to improve ground-based operations such as power distribution, pipeline management, and six-sigma manufacturing, and positively impact the functionality and reliability of communications, navigation and space operations. Complementing space weather forecasting systems currently being developed for the NOAA Space Environment Service Center (SESC) and the Air Force Space Forecast Center (AFSFC), the proposed product will provide customer specific forecasts for both commercial and government space and ground based applications. At the end of Phase III of this proposed system Mission Research Corporation projects an operating value-added space weather service, complementing the capabilities of the AFSFC and the SESC, for commercial and government customers.