SBIR Phase II: Predictions of Magnetic Activity Induced Hazards to Ground and Space Assets

这份小企业创新研究第二阶段的合同将继续开发一个可操作的原型系统，以预测电离层电流和相关影响，如极光椭圆加热的增强、密度不规则性和客户特定位置的地磁感应电流。第一阶段的工作设计并证明了空间天气电离层预报技术（SWIFT）系统的可行性，该系统为确定电离层电流和由此产生的地磁变化提供了第一个预测时间和空间变量的能力。这些预报将直接依赖于对太阳风速度、密度和行星际磁场的实时测量。将该方法应用于空间天气预报，将首次提供即将到来的地磁风暴和亚风暴活动的一小时预报，可用于改善地面操作，如配电、管道管理和六西格玛制造，并将对通信、导航和空间操作的功能和可靠性产生积极影响。该产品将为商业和政府空间和地面应用提供客户特定的预测。在第二阶段，研究人员将(1)对代码进行改进以提高准确性；(2)设计一个健壮的操作原型，该原型将在没有大量操作员干预的情况下有效运行，同时提供质量控制输出；(3)量化这些产品的市场；(4)开发一个产品树，为减轻空间天气影响提供客户特定的输出。该提案的产品将具有广泛的商业应用。它将对严重影响电力线传输的地磁感应电流提供关键预警，并可能影响管道、长通信线路和高可靠性的“六西格玛”制造过程。它还将有利于政府内部的高优先级活动，并将增强SEC和AFSFC目前正在开发的预测能力。每年可节省数百万美元。

9531306 Maynard This Small Business Innovative Research Phase II award will continue the development of an operational prototype system to forecast ionospheric currents and related effects, such as enhancements in auroral oval heating, density irregularities and geomagnetically induced currents at customer specific locations. The Phase I effort designed and proved the feasibility of the Space Weather Ionospheric Forecast Technologies (SWIFT) system which provides the first predictive temporally- and spatially- variable capability for determining ionospheric currents and resulting ground magnetic variations. These forecasts will depend directly on real-time measurements of the solar wind velocity, density, and interplanetary magnetic field. Application of this method to space weather forecasting will provide, for the first time, one-hour forecasts of impending geomagnetic storm and substorm activity which can be used to improve ground-based operations such as power distribution, pipeline management, and six-sigma manufacturing, and will positively impact the functionality and reliability of communications, navigation, and space operations. The product will provide customer specific forecasts for both commercial and government space and ground-based applications. In Phase II, the investigators will (1) add refinements to the code to improve accuracy, (2) design a robust operational prototype that will operate efficiently without significant operator intervention and, at the same time, provide a quality control output, (3) quantify the market for these products, and (4) develop a product tree that will provide customer specific outputs for space weather effects mitigation. The product of this proposal will have broad commercial applications. It will provide critical warning of Geomagnetically Induced Currents that severely impact power line transmission, and can affect pipelines, long communication lines and high-reliability "six sigma" manufacturing processes. It will also benefit high-priority activities within the government, and will augment forecast capabilities currently under development for SEC and AFSFC. The potential savings are many millions of dollars per year.