Doctoral Dissertation: Mapping the Territory of Uncertainty and Ignorance: Broadening Current Assessment and Policy Approaches

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Moser, S. This support is for a Doctoral Dissertation Enhancement Award. Current efforts in the assessment of uncertainty in global change are largely confined to technical and scientific uncertainties. The treatment of scientific uncertainty fails to address the broader uncertainties involved in the human dimensions of global change. The first goal of this dissertation research is to help broaden uncertainty analysis and assessment beyond the physical dynamics of global change by exploring how social uncertainties and the domain of ignorance can be incorporated into uncertainty analysis. The substantive context is that of potential impacts from human-induced sea-level rise (SLR) on the natural and social systems along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts. Second, the study aims to assess how uncertainties are currently addressed in policy-making and management systems and how they may better be confronted to allow for a more effective human response to climate change and SLR The study aims to (1) contribute a broadened conceptual framework of uncertainty and ignorance as a basis for a more inclusive and robust assessment of uncertainties in global change, (2) evaluate current scientific uncertainty and sea-level rise impact assessment and management efforts, and (3) point toward venues of improvement both for uncertainty assessment and for policy-making for and management of high-uncertainty, high-stake situations that incorporate human-dimension uncertainties and ignorance. f8 Û-ª þ + Ûª▓ ÑOh ª' +'ª▒0 Ý + ] $ H l + ¢ ╗ S u m m a r y I n f o r m a t i o n ( ++++++++++++ & Û ++++++++++++ ++++++++++++ ++++++++++++ D h + *send the memo, to type the sub R:\WWUSER\TEMPLATE\NORMAL.DOT