Doctoral Dissertation Research: The Dynamic Approach to the Assessment of Vulnerability: Farmers' Coping Responses to No-Flow Events in the Lower Yellow River, 1991-1999

这项博士论文研究项目将考察农户对因黄河下游“断流”事件而导致的灌溉水资源短缺的脆弱性。1949年以前，严重的洪灾是这一地区的主要威胁。具有讽刺意味的是，“停水”事件的频率、持续时间和范围越来越大，这意味着未来的问题可能是缺水，而不是过剩。但是，农民到底有多容易受到黄河断流事件导致的灌溉水资源短缺的影响呢？哪些因素决定了易受这些短缺的影响？到目前为止，农民是如何应对无流量事件的，以及农民如何在未来减少对无流量事件的脆弱性？这项研究将试图通过开发和测试一个框架来回答这些问题，该框架将脆弱性概念化为一个动态、进化和迭代的过程，在不同的时间和空间尺度上运作。本研究将以山东省两个村1991-1999年间农户的经验为研究重点。将在这些村庄进行入户调查，以收集农民对不流动事件的知识和意识以及他们采取的应对策略的信息。还将在村和区域两级与关键的举报人进行访谈。采访数据将得到官方数据的补充，这些数据包括无水事件的频率、持续时间和程度、作物产量和灌溉配额。这些数据将用于绘制家庭一级脆弱性的时间模式图，使用饥荒预警系统编制的应对反应序列的修订版。这些数据还将用于确定应对能力和过渡经济之间的联系，方法是审查影响福利变化模式的社会经济因素，并探讨在不同空间尺度上影响脆弱性的不同社会进程。将利用定性分析对农业政策和水管理机构对农民生计的影响以及不同级别的机构应对措施之间的联系产生有意义的了解。定量分析将用于确定压力水平与家庭应对措施之间、家庭资产与应对措施之间以及家庭应对措施与具体机构战略之间的统计联系，从而确定影响家庭灌溉缺水脆弱性的主要因素。这项研究将有助于从几个实际和概念上研究脆弱性。首先，通过关注家庭应对序列，这项研究将澄清决定特定地区特定人群脆弱性的性质和时间动态的因素。其次，这项研究将扩大对转型经济体脆弱性的实证分析，这一点迄今在很大程度上被忽视了。第三，以黄河下游为重点的研究将有助于更好地了解中国北部的缺水问题，有助于提高水资源管理机构和农户的应对能力，从而有助于在区域和国家层面建立可持续的水资源管理制度。作为博士论文研究改进奖，该奖项还将提供支持，使有前途的学生建立一个强大的独立研究生涯。

This doctoral dissertation research project will examine the vulnerability of farming households to irrigation water shortages that result from "no-flow" events in Lower Yellow River in the Shandong Province of China. Prior to 1949, severe flooding was the major threat in this region. Ironically, the increasing frequency, duration, and extent of "no-flow" events mean that a lack of water, rather than a surfeit, may be the problem of the future. But just how vulnerable are farmers to irrigation water shortages resulting from no-flow events on the Yellow River? What factors determine vulnerability to these shortages? How have farmers been coping with no-flow events to date, and how can farmers reduce their vulnerability to no-flow events in the future? The research will attempt to answer these questions by developing and testing a framework that conceptualizes vulnerability as a dynamic, evolutionary and iterative process that operates at different time and space scales. The research will focus on the experiences of farming households in two villages in Shandong Province during the period 1991-1999. Household surveys will be conducted in these villages to gather information about farmers' knowledge and awareness of no-flow events and the coping strategies that they have employed. Additional interviews will be conducted with key informants at the village and regional levels. Interview data will be supplemented with official data on the frequency, duration, and extent of no-flow events, crop yields, and irrigation quotas. These data will be used to map the temporal patterns of vulnerability at the household level, using a modified version of the coping response sequence developed by the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS). The data will also be used to identify the links between coping capacity and the transitional economy by examining socio-economic factors that have influenced the pattern of entitlement changes, and explore the differing social processes that affect vulnerability at various spatial scales. Qualitative analyses will be used to generate a meaningful understanding of the effects of agricultural policies and water management institutions on farmers' livelihoods, and the linkages between institutional responses at different levels. Quantitative analyses will be used to determine the statistical association between stress levels and household coping responses, between household assets and coping responses, and between household coping responses and specific institution strategies, and thus to identify the main factors affecting household vulnerability to irrigation water shortage.The research will contribute to the study of vulnerability in several practical and conceptual ways. First, by focusing on household coping sequences, the research will clarify the factors that determine the nature and temporal dynamics of vulnerability for specific people in specific places. Second, the study will extend the empirical analysis of vulnerability to a transitional economy, which have been largely ignored to date. Third, the study focus on the Lower Yellow River will provide better understanding of water shortage problems in North China, and help improve the coping capacities of water management institution and farming households, and thus aid in the development of a sustainable water resource management regime at the regional and national levels. As a Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement award, this award also will provide support to enable a promising student to establish a strong independent research career.