Collaborative Research on Candidate Emergence in U.S. House Elections

美国众议院选举中候选人出现的合作研究

• 批准号: 9515332
• 负责人: Louis Maisel
• 金额: $ 9.47万
• 依托单位: Colby College
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1996
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1996-02-01 至 2000-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9515332&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Candidate; Emergence; U.S.

Maisel 9515332 The nature and quality of the choice citizens are offered in congressional elections is central to the health of American democracy. In the candidate-centered arena of electoral politics, a great deal depends upon the individual candidates who choose (or choose not ) to run. Much of the problem reduces to a very significant incumbency advantage in U.S. House elections: when the incumbent decides to run for reelection, he or she is perceived as very difficult to beat. As a result, potentially strong candidates who might offer voters a significant alternative do not emerge to challenge the sitting member. The average challenger, therefore, is underqualified, underfunded, and relatively invisible to voters in the district. The result is that House elections often are not competitive, and the choice voters make is distorted to the significant advantage of incumbents. The dramatic partisan change that resulted from the 1994 election probably did not disturb the long-term incumbency effect, although it may dramatically alter the contours of congressional-election choice in other ways. In this investigation the researchers will examine candidate emergence by surveying a national sample of potential House candidates. The researchers argue that there are two "decisions" relevant to entering a House race in any particular year: a general commitment to run for a House seat and a specific decision to run in a given race.; The investigators contend that the general commitment to run is a necessary condition for virtually all House candidates and results from a strong interest in public policy outcomes, a sense that the House is an attractive and desirable institution in which to serve, and an ambition to hold public office. By and large, these variables are not "strategic" in nature. In contrast, the investigators argue that the decision to run in a specific year is heavily influenced by the potential candidate's perceived chances of winning his or her party's nomination and , if nominated, the general election. The researchers suggest an expected utility model that combines these strategic and longer-term consideration, along with the costs potential candidates must bear to make a run. The investigators carry out a two-stage study building on an earlier pilot study. The first stage involves a survey of informants in a national sample of U.S. districts. Informants who are politically aware of local affairs. They will provide information about the district, the incumbent, and about potential candidates who might run for the U.S. House of Representatives. The second stage involves surveying state legislators who districts overlap with the sample U.S House districts. This is the first investigation to identify and study a sample of strong potential candidates for the U.S. House and will enhance substantially our understanding of the factors that influence candidate emergence in congressional elections. ***

Maisel 9515332 公民在国会选举中选择的性质和质量对美国民主的健康至关重要。 在以候选人为中心的选举政治竞技场中，很大程度上取决于选择（或不选择）参加竞选的候选人。 这个问题在很大程度上归结为美国众议院选举中一个非常重要的在职优势：当现任者决定竞选连任时，他或她被认为是非常难以击败的。 因此，可能为选民提供重要选择的潜在强大候选人不会出现挑战现任成员。 因此，一般的挑战者资格不足，资金不足，对该地区的选民来说相对无形。 其结果是，众议院选举往往没有竞争力，选民的选择被扭曲成现任者的显著优势。 1994年大选所导致的党派剧变可能并没有扰乱长期在职效应，尽管它可能在其他方面戏剧性地改变了国会选举选择的轮廓。 在这项调查中，研究人员将通过调查潜在众议院候选人的全国样本来研究候选人的出现。 研究人员认为，在任何一年，有两个“决定”与参加众议院竞选有关：竞选众议院席位的一般承诺和参加特定竞选的具体决定。 调查人员认为，对竞选的普遍承诺是几乎所有众议院候选人的必要条件，这是对公共政策结果的强烈兴趣的结果，一种众议院是一个有吸引力和可取的机构的感觉，以及担任公职的野心。 总的来说，这些变数在性质上不是“战略性的”。 相比之下，调查人员认为，在特定年份参选的决定在很大程度上受到潜在候选人赢得党内提名的可能性的影响，如果被提名，也会赢得大选。 研究人员提出了一个预期效用模型，将这些战略和长期考虑结合起来，沿着潜在候选人必须承担的成本。 研究人员在早期试点研究的基础上进行了两阶段研究。 第一阶段是对美国全国各地区的受访者进行调查。 对地方事务有政治意识的告密者。 他们将提供有关该地区、现任者以及可能竞选美国众议院议员的潜在候选人的信息。 第二阶段是调查与美国众议院选区重叠的州立法者。 这是第一次调查，以确定和研究一个样本的强大的潜在候选人为美国众议院，并将大大提高我们的理解的因素，影响候选人出现在国会选举。 ***