Collaborative Research: Transformations in Political Party Organizations and the Rise of Candidate-Centered Elections in the U.S., 1878-2008

今天，美国以候选人为中心的政治和个人投票比过去强大得多，而政党组织则弱得多。这个项目提出了两个主要问题：i)为什么会发生这种情况？这种发展对美国民主的未来意味着什么？美国政治文学的传统观点是，以候选人为中心的选举时代始于20世纪50年代或60年代的某个时候。在这一点上，传统的政党组织最终屈服于各种压力，包括竞选广告技术（如电视）的变化，以公务员雇佣取代赞助，以及增加个人当选官员可用于选区服务的资源。选民们认为政党越来越无关紧要，他们对党派的忠诚也越来越弱。然而，一些著名学者认为，这种转变开始得更早，也更渐进。他们强调初选在削弱政党组织和培养个人政治方面的重要性。本研究将进行几个实证项目，这些项目将揭示可能削弱政党组织和促进以候选人为中心的选举的各种因素的相对重要性。直接初选有多重要？公务员队伍的扩大和任命权的减少？新通讯技术的引入？相对于政党，候选人的竞选努力增加了多少？这些变化是什么时候发生的？在初选竞争激烈的州，是否出现得更早？该研究还将调查在初选中以候选人为中心的投票的影响。卷入丑闻的现任总统在初选中落败的频率有多少？这种情况在安全地区或州发生的频率有多高？在这些地区或州，尽管存在丑闻，现任者很可能在大选中获胜。初选是促进还是阻碍党内竞争？初选是否会阻碍地域或意识形态平衡的候选人的选举？它们会导致两极分化吗？最后，该研究将调查政党组织的削弱与党内派别的崛起之间的关系，随着时间的推移和跨州。投票数据和报纸报道是否提供了政党选民内部存在常规分歧的证据？这些派别是意识形态上的、局部的、基于问题的、城市vs农村的还是个人的？在采用初选后，个人派系的重要性是否有所提高？这项工作还可以利用对党内派系的研究来调查选民的行为和信息。在初选中，意识形态或基于问题的派系分歧对选民行为的影响有多大？这些分歧是否也会蔓延到大选中？这个项目的学术价值不仅反映出它有能力揭示美国政治。该研究解决了选举文献中的一个普遍难题：为什么有些选举以候选人为中心，而有些选举以政党为中心？此外，即使在今天，关于以候选人为中心的政治与以政党为中心的政治相比的利弊仍存在相当大的争论（例如，关于集体责任下降的争论与关于更好的代表权的争论相抗衡），其中一些争论源于对推动以候选人为中心的选举的主要力量的分歧。这项工作将有助于评估这些成本和收益。该项目将产生广泛的教育和社会效益，包括(i)将向公众提供三个新的数字数据库；（ii）各种不同媒体的出版物；（iii）供记者和政治评论员使用的数据集；（iv）两间主要教育机构的研究合作；指导和雇用妇女和代表性不足的少数民族的研究助理；(v)与pi合作的本科生和研究生的专业化。

Candidate-centered politics and personal voting in the United States are much stronger today than they were in the past, and party organizations are much weaker. This project asks two main questions: i) Why did this happen?; ii) What are the implications of this development for the future of American democracy?Conventional wisdom in the American Politics literature is that the era of candidate-centered elections took hold sometime in the 1950s or 1960s. At this point the traditional party organizations finally succumbed to a variety of pressures, including changes in campaign advertising technologies such as television, the replacement of patronage with civil service employment, and an increase in the resources available to individual elected officials for constituency service. Voters saw parties as increasingly irrelevant, and their partisan loyalties grew weaker. However, several prominent scholars argue that this transition began earlier and was more gradual. They emphasize the importance of primary elections in weakening party organizations and cultivating personalistic politics.This research will pursue several empirical projects that will shed some light on the relative importance of various factors that might have weakened party organizations and fostered candidate-centered elections. How important was the direct primary? the expansion of civil service and decline of patronage? the introduction of new communications technology? By how much did the campaign efforts of candidates increase relative to those of parties, and when did these changes occur? Did they occur earlier in states with competitive primaries?The research will also investigate the effects of candidate-centered voting in primary elections. How often do incumbents involved in scandals lose in the primary? How often does this happen in safe districts or states, where these incumbents would be likely to win in the general election despite the scandal? Do primaries foster or hinder inter-party competition? Do primaries prevent the election of geographically or ideologically balanced tickets? Do they cause polarization?Finally, the research will investigate the relationship between the weakening of party organizations and the rise of intra-party factions over time and across states. Do voting data and newspaper accounts provide evidence of regular divisions within party electorates? Are the factions ideological, sectional, sssue-based, urban vs. rural, or personal? Did personalistic factions grow in importance after the adoption of primaries? The work can also use the study of intra-party factions to investigate voter behavior and information. How strongly do ideological or issue-based factional divisions affect voter behavior in primaries? Do these divisions also spill over into general elections?The intellectual merit of this project reflects not only its capacity to shed light on US politics. The research addresses a general puzzle in the literature on elections: why are some elections candidate-centered and others party-centered? In addition, even today there is considerable debate about the benefits and costs of candidate-centered politics compared to party-oriented politics (e.g., arguments about the decline of collective responsibility countered by arguments about better representation), and some of this stems from disagreement about the main forces driving candidate-centered elections. This work will help to assess these costs and benefits.The project will yield broad educational and social benefits, including (i) three new digital databases that will be made publicly available; (ii) publications in a variety of different media; (iii) datasets of use to journalists and political commentators; (iv) a research collaboration between two major educational institutions; (iv) mentoring and employing research assistants who are women and under-represented minorities; and (v) professionalization of undergraduates and graduate students who co-author with the PIs.