Sustainability of Arctic Communities: Interactions Between Global Changes, Public Policies, and Ecological Processes

这项研究解决了北极社区在面对气候变化和发展时维持自身能力的政策问题。在过去的25年里，阿拉斯加北坡自治市的社区一直依靠石油收入、驯鹿、海洋哺乳动物和其他资源的收入来维持生计。地方控制是通过地方政府和土著企业来实施的。本研究考虑的主要气候变化是气温上升、降水增加和极端事件频率增加。这些类型的气候变化将影响驯鹿和其他对当地生存经济至关重要的种群，以及建筑、交通和区域发展。政策听众包括州和国家实体以及北坡自治市镇。一个跨学科小组将专注于一些目标，包括：开发一个预测北美驯鹿饲料的植被模型和一个对气候变量和人类收获作出反应的模型；受驯鹿和工资机会影响的自给狩猎/工资就业模式；对受环境成本和公共政策影响的石油投资进行计量经济学和制度分析；对应对变革力量的政策工具进行比较分析；制定将政策与未来成果联系起来的综合框架。这项研究不会试图将详细的子系统模型与单一的大模型联系起来。相反，子系统模型将被设计为独立运行，其中一个子系统模型的输出将作为其他子系统模型的关键输入。子系统的集成将从反映总体变化的简单元模型开始，然后依次将模型细化到适当的细节级别，以解决具体的政策问题。最终目标是开发一种手段，使政策制定者能够系统地检查政策选择与可能的未来之间的关系，并为来自不同学科的科学家提供一种工具，以结合他们的数据并制定互补的研究计划。*** ??

ABSTRACT OPP-9521459 KRUSE This study addresses policy questions about the ability of arctic communities to sustain themselves in the face of climate changes and development. For the past 25 years, communities in Alaska's North Slope Borough have sustained themselves through a combination of wage employment derived from petroleum revenues, harvests mf caribou, marine mammals, and other resources. Local control has been exercised through regional government and Native-owned corporations. The principal climate changes considered in this study are rising temperatures, increased precipitation and increased frequency of extreme events. Climate changes of these types will affect caribou and other populations important to the local subsistence economy, as well as construction, transportation and regional development. The policy audience includes state and national entities and the North Slope Borough. An interdisciplinary group will focus on a number of goals including: the development of a vegetation model that predicts forage for caribou and a model that responds to climate variables and human harvest; a subsistence hunting/wage employment model as affected by caribou and wage opportunities; an econometric and institutional analysis of petroleum investments as affected by environmental costs and public policies; a comparative analysis of policy vehicles for responding to forces of change; and the development of a synthesis framework for relating policies to future outcomes. The study will not attempt to link the detailed subsystem models in a single grand model. Rather, the subsystem models will be designed to operate independently with the outputs of one subsystem model serving as key inputs to the other subsystem models. Integration of the subsystems will start with a simple meta-model that reflects gross changes and then successively elaborate the model to a level of detail appropriate to address specific policy questions. The ultimate goal is to develop a means by which policy makers can systematically examine relationships between policy choices and possible futures, as well as to provide a vehicle for scientists from different disciplines to combine their data and develop complementary research programs. *** ??