Sustainability of Arctic Communities: Interactions Between Global Changes, Public Policies, and Ecological Processes

摘要编号-9521459 KRUSE 这项研究涉及北极社区在气候变化和发展面前自我维持能力的政策问题。在过去的25年里，阿拉斯加北坡自治市的社区通过石油收入、驯鹿、海洋哺乳动物和其他资源的收获来维持生计。地方控制是通过地区政府和土著企业实施的。本研究考虑的主要气候变化是气温上升、降水增加和极端事件频率增加。这些类型的气候变化将影响驯鹿和其他对当地生计经济以及建筑、运输和区域发展至关重要的种群。政策受众包括州和国家实体以及北坡自治市。一个跨学科小组将侧重于若干目标，其中包括：开发一个预测驯鹿饲料的植被模型和一个对气候变量和人类收获作出反应的模型;一个受驯鹿和工资机会影响的自给狩猎/工资就业模型;对受环境成本和公共政策影响的石油投资进行计量经济学和体制分析;对应对变革力量的政策工具进行比较分析;以及制定一个综合框架，将政策与未来成果联系起来。本研究不会试图将详细的子系统模型连接到一个单一的大模型中。相反，子系统模型将被设计为独立运行，其中一个子系统模型的输出作为其他子系统模型的关键输入。子系统的整合将从一个反映总体变化的简单元模型开始，然后逐步将模型细化到适合解决具体政策问题的详细程度。最终目标是开发一种手段，使决策者能够系统地研究政策选择与可能的未来之间的关系，并为来自不同学科的科学家提供一种工具，使他们能够联合收割机结合数据，制定互补的研究方案。 *** ??

ABSTRACT OPP-9521459 KRUSE This study addresses policy questions about the ability of arctic communities to sustain themselves in the face of climate changes and development. For the past 25 years, communities in Alaska's North Slope Borough have sustained themselves through a combination of wage employment derived from petroleum revenues, harvests mf caribou, marine mammals, and other resources. Local control has been exercised through regional government and Native-owned corporations. The principal climate changes considered in this study are rising temperatures, increased precipitation and increased frequency of extreme events. Climate changes of these types will affect caribou and other populations important to the local subsistence economy, as well as construction, transportation and regional development. The policy audience includes state and national entities and the North Slope Borough. An interdisciplinary group will focus on a number of goals including: the development of a vegetation model that predicts forage for caribou and a model that responds to climate variables and human harvest; a subsistence hunting/wage employment model as affected by caribou and wage opportunities; an econometric and institutional analysis of petroleum investments as affected by environmental costs and public policies; a comparative analysis of policy vehicles for responding to forces of change; and the development of a synthesis framework for relating policies to future outcomes. The study will not attempt to link the detailed subsystem models in a single grand model. Rather, the subsystem models will be designed to operate independently with the outputs of one subsystem model serving as key inputs to the other subsystem models. Integration of the subsystems will start with a simple meta-model that reflects gross changes and then successively elaborate the model to a level of detail appropriate to address specific policy questions. The ultimate goal is to develop a means by which policy makers can systematically examine relationships between policy choices and possible futures, as well as to provide a vehicle for scientists from different disciplines to combine their data and develop complementary research programs. *** ??