MMIA: Hierarchical Approach to Integrated Assessment of Climate and Land Use Changes with an Application to the Central United States

9523612 Easterling人类活动和全球环境的复杂相互作用已经被研究了十多年，建模方案专注于与复杂整体解耦的离散问题（例如，单一部门研究、各组成部分之间缺乏反馈、关键关系只得到部分反映、人类系统与生物物理系统之间的联系不明确），从而使这类计划成为薄弱的政策工具。 需要综合评估（IA）来更完整地模拟整个人类-环境系统。 目前正在进行若干综合保障努力，大多数是在空间和部门上高度集中的形式。 很少有人注意到的问题，有多少空间和部门的细节是必要的，以实现可靠的估计土地利用和生态变化的区域，国家和全球建模评估，这是这个问题，提出的研究是解决。 据推测，需要一个空间层次的建模来呈现复杂的人类环境系统。 研究目标是：（1）建立世纪陆地生态系统模式和FASOM经济模式之间的信息联系，以评估美国大平原人类-环境系统对气候变化的响应：（2）识别和量化控制地方和区域尺度土地利用决策的关键人类环境因素;（3）评价美国人类-环境系统的敏感性。S.大平原到地方尺度土地利用决策的相对聚集区域分析。

9523612 Easterling The complex interplay of human activities and the global environment has been examined for over a decade with modeling schemes that focus on discrete problems that are decoupled from the complex whole (e.g., single sector studies, lack of feedbacks between component parts, partial representation of key relationships, poorly specified linkages between human and biophysical systems) thus making such schemes weak policy tools. Integrated assessments (IA) are needed to more completely model whole human-environment systems. Several IA efforts are under way, most of a highly spatially and sectorally aggregated form. Little attention has been given to the question of how much spatial and sectoral detail is necessary in order to achieve reliable estimates of land use and ecological changes in regional, national, and global modeling assessments; such is the question to which this proposed research is addressed. It is hypothesized that a spatial hierarchy of modeling is needed to present complex human-environmental systems. The research objectives here are: (1) to develop information linkage between the Century terrestrial ecosystem model and the FASOM economic model in order to assess changes in the human-environmental system of the U.S. Great Plains in response to climate changes; (2) to identify and quantify the critical human environmental factors controlling land use decisions at local and regional scales; and (3) to evaluate the sensitivity of the human-environmental system of the U. S. great Plains to local scale land use decisions relative the aggregated regional analysis.