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The relative effects of abiotic and biotic parameters on plant species performance and their inclusion in species distribution models

非生物和生物参数对植物物种性能的相对影响及其在物种分布模型中的纳入

基本信息

批准号：
101803600
负责人：
Professorin Dr. Christine Römermann
金额：
--
依托单位：
Professur Biodiversität der Pflanzen
依托单位国家：
德国
项目类别：
Research Grants
财政年份：
2008
资助国家：
德国
起止时间：
2007-12-31 至 2013-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/101803600?language=en
关键词：
relative effects abiotic biotic parameters

项目摘要

Species have responded to past global changes by shifting their ranges. Ecologists use statistical models, often called niche models, to predict these range shifts. In the process of constructing niche models it is assumed that species distributions can be explained by abiotic (climatic and edaphic) factors alone. That is, the role of biotic processes is ignored. Current practice therefore ignores an important suite of factors that potentially influence species performance and distribution. It could, therefore, be argued that forecasts of future species ranges and associated assessments of future biodiversity distributions are fundamentally flawed. We propose to investigate the relative effect of both abiotic and biotic factors on the performance and distribution of plant species. We propose to use Bayesian statistical methods to develop a protocol for predicting how abiotic and biotic aspects of the niche determine species distribution. Specifically, we will examine how abiotic conditions and the abundance of competitors influence target species performance at both local and regional scales. A comparison of the local and regional analyses will reveal whether interspecific competition is scale invariant. In a final analysis we will assess whether easy to measure plant functional traits can be used as proxies for the competitive pressure plant assemblages exerted on target species. This framework will improve our capacity to make reliable predictions of species range shifts and will improve the quality of assessments of the effects of global change on biodiversity.

物种对过去全球变化的反应是改变它们的活动范围。生态学家使用统计模型，通常被称为生态位模型，来预测这些范围的变化。在构建生态位模型的过程中，假设物种分布可以单独由非生物（气候和土壤）因素解释。也就是说，生物过程的作用被忽视了。因此，目前的做法忽视了一系列可能影响物种表现和分布的重要因素。因此，可以说，对未来物种分布范围的预测和对未来生物多样性分布的相关评估存在根本性缺陷。我们建议调查非生物和生物因素对植物物种的性能和分布的相对影响。我们建议使用贝叶斯统计方法来开发一个协议，用于预测生态位的非生物和生物方面如何确定物种分布。具体来说，我们将研究如何非生物条件和丰富的竞争对手影响目标物种的表现在当地和区域尺度。本地和区域分析的比较将揭示种间竞争是否是规模不变的。在最后的分析中，我们将评估是否容易测量植物功能性状可以作为代理的竞争压力植物组合施加在目标物种。这一框架将提高我们对物种分布范围变化作出可靠预测的能力，并将提高评估全球变化对生物多样性影响的质量。