The relative effects of abiotic and biotic parameters on plant species performance and their inclusion in species distribution models

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Species have responded to past global changes by shifting their ranges. Ecologists use statistical models, often called niche models, to predict these range shifts. In the process of constructing niche models it is assumed that species distributions can be explained by abiotic (climatic and edaphic) factors alone. That is, the role of biotic processes is ignored. Current practice therefore ignores an important suite of factors that potentially influence species performance and distribution. It could, therefore, be argued that forecasts of future species ranges and associated assessments of future biodiversity distributions are fundamentally flawed. We propose to investigate the relative effect of both abiotic and biotic factors on the performance and distribution of plant species. We propose to use Bayesian statistical methods to develop a protocol for predicting how abiotic and biotic aspects of the niche determine species distribution. Specifically, we will examine how abiotic conditions and the abundance of competitors influence target species performance at both local and regional scales. A comparison of the local and regional analyses will reveal whether interspecific competition is scale invariant. In a final analysis we will assess whether easy to measure plant functional traits can be used as proxies for the competitive pressure plant assemblages exerted on target species. This framework will improve our capacity to make reliable predictions of species range shifts and will improve the quality of assessments of the effects of global change on biodiversity.