Shakeouts, Concentration and Firm Survival

在企业数量初步积累之后，新兴产业通常会经历一次企业数量急剧减少的“淘汰”。 震荡反映了市场结构的突然变化，因此解释它们有望阐明塑造市场结构的力量。 市场结构与技术变迁之间的关系一直是理论化的传统，最近出现了以技术变迁为特征的理论来解释经济衰退。 这个项目的重点是发展和测试的一个新的理论，具有相当不同的影响，对企业生存比竞争理论的技术变革的淘汰赛。 一个新的模型的初步版本的开发和其独特的影响，企业生存的衍生。 这些与竞争理论的企业生存含义形成对比。 为了检验这些替代理论，我们收集了汽车、轮胎、电视机、打字机和青霉素这五种产品的所有生产商进入和退出市场的日期数据，这五种产品都经历了相当大的创新和严重的震荡。 除了研究经历过严重落砂的产品外，还分析了两种尚未经历落砂的技术进步产品：激光和石化苯乙烯。 假设是先进的，为什么这些产品没有经历震荡，并制定了一个计划，以测试这些假设，使用详细的数据进入和公司的生存激光和苯乙烯。

After an initial buildup in the number of firms, new industries commonly experience a ~shakeout~ in which the number of firms declines sharply. Shakeouts reflect an abrupt change in market structure, and thus explaining them promises to illuminate the forces shaping market structure. Following a long tradition of theorizing about the connections between market structure and technological change, recent theories featuring technological change have been proposed to explain shakeouts. This project focuses on the development and test of a new theory of shakeouts featuring technological change that has quite different implications regarding firm survival than the competing theories. A preliminary version of the new model is developed and its distinctive implications concerning firm survival are derived. These are contrasted with the firm survival implications of the competing theories. In order to test the alterative theories, data are collected on the entry and exit dates of all the producers of five products that were subject to considerable innovation and experienced severe shakeouts: autos, tires, televisions, typewriters, and penicillin. In addition to studying products that experienced severe shakeouts, two technologically progressive products that have not yet experienced shakeouts are analyzed: lasers and petrochemical styrene. Hypotheses are advanced for why these products have not experienced shakeouts and a plan is laid out to test these hypotheses using detailed data on entry and firm survival for lasers and styrene.