Economic and Environmental Risk Perceptions: Determinants of Environmental Policy in Transitional Societies

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All societies face decisions about the relationship between environmental protection and economic development, and all societies differ in the cultural, historical, and political context in which those decisions must occur. Attempts to generalize across systems have been illuminating but inconclusive, in part because study designs often have focused on comparisons across similar systems, or because underlying theory was poorly addressed. For example, according to the `postmaterialist thesis,` wide-spread concern about the environment only emerges in a society when it has achieved a relatively high standard of living, and satisfied other, presumably more basic, needs. This is consistent with the commonly held belief that economic growth conflicts with environmental policy. If post-materialism is correct, environmentalism should increase only as economic welfare increases. Recent data from Bulgaria and other countries around the world indicate that concerns about the environment remain high even in the face of economic woes. When long-standing political regimes fell in Eastern Europe this last decade, it appeared that environmental activism was a driving force behind economic and political change. The Burgas area of Bulgaria is particularly suited to a study of these influences, because it is now undergoing rapid economic and political restructuring, and has suffered considerable environmental damage from the Neftochim petrochemical plant, the largest such plant in Europe. In addition, there is a history of heavy pesticide and fertilizer use in the area. Thus the stresses on risk perceptions and environmental policy from economic, environmental, political and policy contexts are heightened. Although multiple sociological theories have been proposed to explain variability in environmentalism, these theories do not address individual level beliefs, decisions and actions. At the individual level, perceptions of riskiness and intentions to act to reduce a risk are hypothesized to be the result of two attributes of the risk: (1) perceptions of exposure to the risk, and (2) perceptions of costs and benefits to individuals and to society from the hazard, moderated by (a) knowledge and beliefs about the hazard underlying the risk (i.e., mental models), (b) beliefs about the ability of individuals or of groups or organizations to reduce or increase the risk, and (c) uncertainty about the risk. This project will contribute to the risk perception and environmental policy literatures, by characterizing risk perceptions, local environmental policies, and attitudes toward those policies in the context of a transitional society.