Testing risk communication strategies designed to address cognitive simplifications that underlie factually erroneous beliefs about scientific issues

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Much remains to be learned about communicating science effectively. When people process complex information, they often simplify it in order to understand it. To facilitate this process, simplification is necessary in almost all science communication. However, the exact form of simplification is key, especially with controversial issues.. This is because some simplifications may confuse people, or even be exploited to intentionally mislead them. This project tests risk communication strategies designed to address the cognitive simplifications that underlie factually erroneous beliefs about scientific issues in situations where such misunderstandings may be likely to lead to suboptimal intentions and decisions. The research also tests the effects of explicitly acknowledging scientific uncertainty on trust in the information provided. Previous research shows that overstating the certainty of the science may invite skepticism. In sum, this project will contribute to a better understanding of how lay audiences think about complex scientific issues and uncertainty as well as to the development of risk communication strategies based on those principles. The project will identify strategies that can be adopted by science educators and risk communicators to help audiences to understand complex risks that subsume critical science elements. Successful science and risk communication depend critically on first understanding how people process complex information. When people think about complex scientific issues, they tend to use shortcuts and more readily accept information consistent with their own prior beliefs. Communication strategies that are guided by cognitive principles can minimize the weaknesses and capitalize on the strengths of the human information processing system. This project will develop and test communication strategies targeting known simplifications that tend to reduce processing load, but also can lead to misunderstandings that reduce the perceived seriousness and urgency of the risk. Because people may not be aware of the assumptions upon which their understanding is based, providing explanations illuminating those steps may allow non-experts to achieve an unbiased and better-rounded understanding of the issue. As a result, they may come to better appreciate the scientifically-assessed seriousness of the problem and to better identify effective mitigative actions. These hypotheses will be tested on nationally representative samples, in experiments that systematically examine the extent to which targeted communication strategies influence trust, individual reasoning, mental models, attitudes, emotions, and decisions, controlling for key factors previously identified as being associated with science-oriented attitudes, including political ideology, age, race and ethnicity. The cognitive experimental approach proposed here is novel and will make important contributions to the psychology of risk communication, as well as to the study of higher order cognition (e.g., decision making) by applying interventions based on dual process theories and mental model constructs.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.