Space Weather: Short-Term Forecasting of Plasma Structure Development in the Equatorial Ionosphere

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The PI will conduct a three-year program to develop a short-term forecasting capability for propagation disturbances in the equatorial ionosphere. Specifically, he will address the day-to-day variability in the development of plasma structure in the nighttime equatorial ionosphere. This will be accomplished with a meridional chain of ionospheric stations that spans the magnetic dip equator. This chain will enable simultaneous measurements in the plasma-density distribution as a function of altitude and dip latitude in both hemispheres. Moreover, measurements of the neutral wind will not be necessary. Specific aims of the project are: (1) simultaneously measure the plasma-density distribution as a function of altitude and dip latitude, along a magnetic meridian in both hemispheres, (2) measure conjugate E-region characteristics in both hemispheres during the development of ESF, (3) evaluate the precursor signature for ESF development using measurements in both hemispheres, (4) perform comprehensive tests of various short-term forecasting methods, and (5) measure the longitudinal correlation of nightly ESF development.