Collaborative Research: Variations in Circumpolar Frozen Ground Conditions and Model Scenarios of Future Conditions

OPP-9614537 OPP-9614557 Nelson，Frederick Barry，纽约罗杰州立大学，科罗拉多大学奥尔巴尼这项研究项目使用全球环流模式(GCM)来推导预测的气候变暖条件下北极永久冻土区的气候条件。气候变暖情景的模型输出将用于预测永久冻土可能融化并对人类人口造成巨大破坏的地区。这种破坏将极大地影响工程实践、海岸侵蚀以及可能影响自给自足经济的生态变化。这项研究的结果将为评估对北极地区基础设施和社会文化的潜在影响提供一个框架，这些地区已经预测了自然或人类活动造成的全球气候变化。这项研究将纳入来自俄罗斯北极的数据，这些数据以前从未获得过。

ABSTRACT OPP-9614537 OPP-9614557 NELSON, FREDERICK BARRY, ROGER STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO AT ALBANY This research project uses Global Circulation Models (GCMs) to derive climatic conditions in the permafrost region of the Arctic during predicted warmer climatic conditions. The model output for a warmer climate scenario will be used to predict the areas where permafrost could thaw and cause great disruption to human populations. The disruption would greatly affect engineering practices, coastal erosion, as well as ecological changes that could affect subsistence economies. The results of this study will provide a framework for assessing potential impacts on the infrastructure and social culture of areas in the Arctic where global climate changes resulting from natural or human activities have been predicted. The study will incorporate data from the Russian Arctic that has not been available previously.